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The Nordic countries have adopted ambitious climate targets that imply far-reaching transformations of their power sectors, making energy system modelling and scenario analysis a central input to long-term policy analysis. At the same time,…

This thesis presents a fundamental rethink of electricity market design at the wholesale and balancing layers. Rather than treating markets as static spot clearing mechanisms, it reframes them as a continuously online, event driven…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-18 Shaun Sweeney , Robert Shorten , Mark O'Malley

In this paper we investigate predictability of electricity prices in the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Ontario, as well as in the US Mid-C market. Using scale-dependent detrended fluctuation analysis, spectral analysis, and the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-01 Olga Y. Uritskaya , Vadim M. Uritsky

In this paper aspects related to handling of intraday imbalances for hydro and wind power are addressed. The definition of imbalance cost is established and used to describe the potential benefits of shifting from plant-specific schedules…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-22 Hans Ole Riddervold , Ellen Krohn Aasgård , Lisa Haukaas , Magnus Korpås

Energy market designs with non-merchant storage have been proposed in recent years, with the aim of achieving optimal market integration of storage. In order to handle the time-linking constraints that are introduced in such markets,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-10 Linde Frölke , Eléa Prat , Pierre Pinson , Richard M. Lusby , Jalal Kazempour

This paper analyses an emerging real-world phenomena in inverter-based renewable-dominated power systems, namely, asymmetry of frequency distribution. The paper first provides a rationale on why asymmetry reduces the "quality" of the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-01-22 Taulant Kerci , Federico Milano

Renewable energy sources, especially wind energy, are to play a larger role in providing electricity to industrial and domestic consumers. This is already the case today for a number of European countries, closely followed by the US and…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-24 Pierre Pinson

Motivated by the increasing integration among electricity markets, in this paper we propose two different methods to incorporate market integration in electricity price forecasting and to improve the predictive performance. First, we…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-12-08 Jesus Lago , Fjo De Ridder , Peter Vrancx , Bart De Schutter

Wind and solar power are known to be highly influenced by weather events and may ramp up or down abruptly. Such events in the power production influence not only the availability of energy, but also the stability of the entire power grid.…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-07-20 M. Anvari , G. Lohmann , M. Wächter , P. Milan , E. Lorenz , D. Heinemann , M. Reza Rahimi Tabar , Joachim Peinke

Modern market management systems continue to evolve due to the intentions to improve system security and reliability. This evolvement has been leading to a transition of market auction models from a deterministic structure with…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-22 Mohammad Ghaljehei , Mojdeh Khorsand

Uncertainty in the output power of large-scale wind power plants (WPPs) can face the electricity market players with undesirable profit variations. Market players can hedge themselves against these risks by participating in forward…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-10-16 Mohsen Banaei , Majid Oloomi Buygi , Hani Raouf-Sheybani , Razgar Ebrahimy , Henrik Madsen

Wind farms can be regarded as complex systems that are, on the one hand, coupled to the nonlinear, stochastic characteristics of weather and, on the other hand, strongly influenced by supervisory control mechanisms. One crucial problem in…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-22 Tobias Braun , Matthias Waechter , Joachim Peinke , Thomas Guhr

We argue that deterministic market clearing formulations introduce arbitrary distortions between day-ahead and expected real-time prices that bias economic incentives and block diversification. We extend and analyze the stochastic clearing…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2015-11-27 Victor M. Zavala , Kibaek Kim , Mihai Anitescu , John Birge

Accurate and efficient imbalance electricity price forecasting is critical for industrial energy trading systems, especially as battery assets and automated bidding pipelines increasingly participate in balancing markets. However, real-time…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-12 Runyao Yu , Julia Lin , Derek W. Bunn , Jochen Stiasny , Wentao Wang , Yujie Chen , Tara Esterl , Peter Palensky , Jochen L. Cremer

Resource distribution is a fundamental problem in economic and policy design, particularly when demand and supply are not naturally aligned. Without regulation, wealthier individuals may monopolize this resource, leaving the needs of others…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-05-26 David Sychrovský , Jakub Černý , Martin Loebl

The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources introduces significant challenges to power grid stability, primarily due to their inherent variability. A new opportunity for grid operation is the smart integration of electricity…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-30 Janik Pinter , Frederik Zahn , Maximilian Beichter , Ralf Mikut , Veit Hagenmeyer

The intermittent nature of the renewable energies increases the operation costs of conventional generators. As the share of energy supplied by renewable sources increases, these costs also increase. In this paper, we quantify these costs by…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-02-26 Ashkan Zeinalzadeh , Donya Ghavidel , Vijay Gupta

Trading on the day-ahead electricity markets requires accurate information about the realization of electricity prices and the uncertainty attached to the predictions. Deriving accurate forecasting models presents a difficult task due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Hannes Hilger , Dirk Witthaut , Manuel Dahmen , Leonardo Rydin Gorjao , Julius Trebbien , Eike Cramer

The energy transition introduces more volatile energy sources into the power grids. In this context, power transfer between different synchronous areas through High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) links becomes increasingly important. Such…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-06-16 Sebastian Pütz , Benjamin Schäfer , Dirk Witthaut , Johannes Kruse

Due to the energy transition, lots of research has been conducted within the last decade on the topics of energy management systems or local energy trading approaches, often on the day-ahead or intraday level. A large majority of these…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-11-21 Jens Hönen , Johann L. Hurink , Bert Zwart