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This paper assumes that the randomness of market trade values and volumes determines the properties of stochastic market prices. We derive the direct dependence of the first two price statistical moments and price volatility on statistical…

General Economics · Economics 2024-02-27 Victor Olkhov

Many recent works in control of electric power systems have investigated their synchronization through global performance metrics under external disturbances. The approach is motivated by fundamental changes in the operation of power grids,…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-07-28 Melvyn Tyloo , Philippe Jacquod

Motivated by electricity markets, this paper studies the impact of forward contracting in situations where firms have capacity constraints and heterogeneous production lead times. We consider a model with two types of firms - leaders and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-06-29 Desmond Cai , Anish Agarwal , Adam Wierman

This paper proposes a novel approach for optimal energy and reserve scheduling of wind farms by explicitly modelling wake interactions to enhance market participation and operational efficiency. Conventional methods often neglect wake…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-14 Marin Mabboux-Fort , Majid Bastankhah , Peter C Matthews , Mokhtar Bozorg

In Europe, balance responsible parties can deliberately take out-of-balance positions to support transmission system operators (TSOs) in maintaining grid stability and earn profit, a practice called implicit balancing. Model predictive…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-03 Seyed Soroush Karimi Madahi , Kenneth Bruninx , Bert Claessens , Chris Develder

Financial markets are complex adaptive systems characterized by collective behavior and abrupt regime shifts, particularly during crises. This paper studies time-varying dependencies in Nordic equity markets and examines whether…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-13 Maksym A. Girnyk

Dynamic, risk-based pricing can systematically exclude vulnerable consumer groups from essential resources such as health insurance and consumer credit. We show that a regulator can realign private incentives with social objectives through…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Jesse Thibodeau , Hadi Nekoei , Afaf Taïk , Janarthanan Rajendran , Golnoosh Farnadi

Intermittent renewable energies are increasingly dominating electricity grids and are forecasted to be the main force driving out fossil fuels from the grid in most major economies until 2040. However, grids based on intermittent renewables…

General Economics · Economics 2025-04-05 Alona Zharova , Felix Creutzig

Probabilistic forecasting in combination with stochastic programming is a key tool for handling the growing uncertainties in future energy systems. Derived from a general stochastic programming formulation for the optimal scheduling and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-03-25 Mario Beykirch , Tim Janke , Florian Steinke

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, many countries plan to massively expand wind power and solar photovoltaic capacities. These variable renewable energy sources require additional flexibility in the power sector. Both geographical…

General Economics · Economics 2023-07-13 Alexander Roth , Wolf-Peter Schill

The rising share of volatile renewable generation increases the demand for flexibility in the electricity grid. Flexible capacity can be offered by industrial energy systems through participation on either the continuous intraday,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-12-26 Niklas Nolzen , Alissa Ganter , Nils Baumgärtner , Ludger Leenders , André Bardow

An on-going debate in the energy economics and power market community has raised the question if energy-only power markets are increasingly failing due to growing feed-in shares from subsidized renewable energy sources (RES). The short…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-11-18 Marcus Hildmann , Andreas Ulbig , Göran Andersson

Recent studies concerning the point electricity price forecasting have shown evidence that the hourly German Intraday Continuous Market is weak-form efficient. Therefore, we take a novel, advanced approach to the problem. A probabilistic…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-02 Michał Narajewski , Florian Ziel

More spatially granular electricity wholesale markets promise more efficient operation and better asset siting in highly renewable power systems. Great Britain is considering moving from its current single-price national wholesale market to…

General Economics · Economics 2025-06-09 Lukas Franken , Andrew Lyden , Daniel Friedrich

We analyse the drivers of European Power Exchange (EPEX) wholesale electricity prices between 2012 and early 2022 using machine learning. The agnostic random forest approach that we use is able to reduce in-sample root mean square errors…

General Economics · Economics 2022-09-01 Emanuel Kohlscheen , Richhild Moessner

European energy markets are decentralized and entail balance responsibility of each market player. This stresses the importance of imbalance management of renewable energy sources (RES), as the imbalance payments can strongly reduce their…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-10 Petra Draskovic , Ivan Pavic , Karlo Sepetanc , Hrvoje Pandzic

Since the 1990s, widespread introduction of central (wholesale) electricity markets has been seen across multiple continents, driven by the search for efficient operation of the power grid through competition. The increase of renewables has…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-15 Pål Forr Austnes , Matthieu Jacobs , Lu Wang , Mario Paolone

Flexibility of small loads, in particular from Electric Vehicles (EVs), has recently attracted a lot of interest due to their possibility of participating in the energy market and the new commercial potentials. Different from existing work,…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2018-05-28 Emmanouil Valsomatzis , Torben Bach Pedersen , Alberto Abello

In a decentralized balancing model, Balance Responsible Parties (BRPs) are encouraged by the Transmission System Operator (TSO) to deviate from their schedule to help the system restore balance, also referred to as implicit balancing. This…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-08 Max Bruninx , Seyed Soroush Karimi Madahi , Timothy Verstraeten , Jan Decuyper , Chris Develder , Jan Helsen

Minimizing both power fluctuations and energy waste in an electrical grid is a central challenge to energy policy. Any discrepancy between power production and loads may lead to inefficiencies and instability in the system. Right now, the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-05-20 H. Grebel