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Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding the impact of human actions on Earth's climate. One key application of these models is studying extreme weather events, such as heat waves or dry spells, which have…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-04-25 Seth Bassetti , Brian Hutchinson , Claudia Tebaldi , Ben Kravitz

Earth System Models (ESM) are our main tool for projecting the impacts of climate change. However, running these models at sufficient resolution for local-scale risk-assessments is not computationally feasible. Deep learning-based…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-07-08 Paula Harder , Luca Schmidt , Francis Pelletier , Nicole Ludwig , Matthew Chantry , Christian Lessig , Alex Hernandez-Garcia , David Rolnick

Projection of changes in extreme indices of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation are critical to assess the potential impacts of climate change on human-made and natural systems, including critical infrastructures and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-24 Nidhin Harilal , Udit Bhatia , Mayank Singh

The impacts of climate change are felt by most critical systems, such as infrastructure, ecological systems, and power-plants. However, contemporary Earth System Models (ESM) are run at spatial resolutions too coarse for assessing effects…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-03-10 Thomas Vandal , Evan Kodra , Sangram Ganguly , Andrew Michaelis , Ramakrishna Nemani , Auroop R Ganguly

We introduce a probabilistic diffusion-based method for global atmospheric downscaling implemented within the Anemoi framework. The approach transforms low-resolution ensemble forecasts into high-resolution ensembles by learning the…

This study aims to improve the spatial representation of uncertainties when regressing surface wind speeds from large-scale atmospheric predictors for sub-seasonal forecasting. Sub-seasonal forecasting often relies on large-scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Ganglin Tian , Anastase Alexandre Charantonis , Camille Le Coz , Alexis Tantet , Riwal Plougonven

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the primary tool to simulate climate evolution and assess the impacts of climate change. However, they often operate at a coarse spatial resolution that limits their accuracy in reproducing local-scale…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-04 Jose González-Abad , Álex Hernández-García , Paula Harder , David Rolnick , José Manuel Gutiérrez

Accurate prediction of physical fields is critical in various engineering applications, including thermal management in electronic systems, airfoil shape optimization in aerospace, and flow field control in hypersonic vehicles. This study…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-03-12 Yuan Jia , Chi Zhang , Hao Ma , Qiao Zhang , Kai Liu , Chih-Yung Wen

Machine learning methods have been shown to be effective for weather forecasting, based on the speed and accuracy compared to traditional numerical models. While early efforts primarily concentrated on deterministic predictions, the field…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-11 Erik Larsson , Joel Oskarsson , Tomas Landelius , Fredrik Lindsten

Deep learning offers promising capabilities for the statistical downscaling of climate and weather forecasts, with generative approaches showing particular success in capturing fine-scale precipitation patterns. However, most existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Paula Harder , Christian Lessig , Matthew Chantry , Francis Pelletier , David Rolnick

Deep Learning has recently emerged as a perfect prognosis downscaling technique to compute high-resolution fields from large-scale coarse atmospheric data. Despite their promising results to reproduce the observed local variability, they…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Jose González-Abad , Jorge Baño-Medina , Ignacio Heredia Cachá

The state of the art for physical hazard prediction from weather and climate requires expensive km-scale numerical simulations driven by coarser resolution global inputs. Here, a generative diffusion architecture is explored for downscaling…

Effective hydrological modeling and extreme weather analysis demand precipitation data at a kilometer-scale resolution, which is significantly finer than the 10 km scale offered by standard global products like IMERG. To address this, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-03 Chugang Yi , Minghan Yu , Weikang Qian , Yixin Wen , Haizhao Yang

High-resolution climate simulations are valuable for understanding climate change impacts. This has motivated use of regional convection-permitting climate models (CPMs), but these are very computationally expensive. We present a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-02-05 Henry Addison , Elizabeth Kendon , Suman Ravuri , Laurence Aitchison , Peter AG Watson

We address the essential role of information retrieval in enhancing climate downscaling, focusing on the need for high-resolution datasets and the application of deep learning models. We explore the requirements for acquiring detailed…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-06-03 Declan Curran , Hira Saleem , Flora Salim

Renewable resources are strongly dependent on local and large-scale weather situations. Skillful subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts -- beyond two weeks and up to two months -- can offer significant socioeconomic advantages to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Maximilian Springenberg , Noelia Otero , Yuxin Xue , Jackie Ma

Solving partial differential equations (PDEs) on fine spatio-temporal scales for high-fidelity solutions is critical for numerous scientific breakthroughs. Yet, this process can be prohibitively expensive, owing to the inherent complexities…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-04-09 Yulong Lu , Wuzhe Xu

In climate science and meteorology, high-resolution local precipitation (rain and snowfall) predictions are limited by the computational costs of simulation-based methods. Statistical downscaling, or super-resolution, is a common workaround…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Prakhar Srivastava , Ruihan Yang , Gavin Kerrigan , Gideon Dresdner , Jeremy McGibbon , Christopher Bretherton , Stephan Mandt

Global climate projections rely on computationally demanding Earth System Models (ESMs), which are typically limited to coarse spatial resolutions due to their high cost. To obtain high-resolution projections for regions of interest, it is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-05 Erik Larsson , Ramon Fuentes-Franco , Mikhail Ivanov , Fredrik Lindsten

Downscaling is essential for generating the high-resolution climate data needed for local planning, but traditional methods remain computationally demanding. Recent years have seen impressive results from AI downscaling models, particularly…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-06-27 Declan J. Curran , Sanaa Hobeichi , Hira Saleem , Hao Xue , Flora D. Salim