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Splitting probabilities quantify the likelihood of particular outcomes out of a set of mutually-exclusive possibilities for stochastic processes and play a central role in first-passage problems. For two-dimensional Markov processes…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2025-08-12 Emir Sezik , Jacob Knight , Henry Alston , Connor Roberts , Thibault Bertrand , Gunnar Pruessner , Luca Cocconi

Particle splitting methods are considered for the estimation of rare events. The probability of interest is that a Markov process first enters a set $B$ before another set $A$, and it is assumed that this probability satisfies a large…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-11-14 Thomas Dean , Paul Dupuis

The computation of the probability of the first-passage time through a given threshold of a stochastic process is a classic problem that appears in many branches of physics. When the stochastic dynamics is markovian, the probability admits…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-05-05 Michele Maggiore , Antonio Riotto

In this chapter, we consider the problem of a non-Markovian random walker (displaying memory effects) searching for a target. We review an approach that links the first passage statistics to the properties of trajectories followed by the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-01-30 Olivier Bénichou , Thomas Guérin , Nicolas Levernier , Raphaël Voituriez

We study random walk on complex networks with transition probabilities which depend on the current and previously visited nodes. By using an absorbing Markov chain we derive an exact expression for the mean first passage time between pairs…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-11-14 Lasko Basnarkov , Miroslav Mirchev , Ljupco Kocarev

We study a one-dimensional random walk with memory in which the step lengths to the left and to the right evolve at each step in order to reduce the wandering of the walker. The feedback is quite efficient and lead to a non-diffusive walk.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2010-06-18 L. Turban

We investigate the splitting probability of a monitored continuous-time quantum walk with two targets and show that, in stark contrast to a classical random walk, it exhibits a nonanalytic, phase-transition-like behavior controlled by the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-01-23 Prashant Singh , David A. Kessler , Eli Barkai

First passage time plays a fundamental role in dynamical characterization of stochastic processes. Crucially, our current understanding on the problem is almost entirely relies on the theoretical formulations, which assume the processes…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-02-01 Yuta Sakamoto , Takahiro Sakaue

Random walks on networks is the standard tool for modelling spreading processes in social and biological systems. This first-order Markov approach is used in conventional community detection, ranking, and spreading analysis although it…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-08-13 Martin Rosvall , Alcides V. Esquivel , Andrea Lancichinetti , Jevin D. West , Renaud Lambiotte

We consider the problem of leakage or effusion of an ensemble of independent stochastic processes from a region where they are initially randomly distributed. The case of Brownian motion, initially confined to the left half line with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-06-29 David S. Dean , Satya N. Majumdar , Gregory Schehr

We discuss a problem of cyclization of a polymer molecule, which is an important example of reaction in a system showing strongly non-Markovian behavior on the timescales of interest. We show that the knowledge of the joint three-time…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-07 I. M. Sokolov

We construct a continuous-time, positively divisible non-Markovian process with memory of the initial state that satisfies the differential Chapman--Kolmogorov equation. In the stationary state, the correlation function exhibits exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-29 Bilal Canturk , Gokhan Baris Bagci , Onur Pusuluk

Pathways of diffusion observed in real-world systems often require stochastic processes going beyond first-order Markov models, as implicitly assumed in network theory. In this work, we focus on second-order Markov models, and derive an…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-01-03 Renaud Lambiotte , Vsevolod Salnikov , Martin Rosvall

We consider a discrete-time random walk where the random increment at time step $t$ depends on the full history of the process. We calculate exactly the mean and variance of the position and discuss its dependence on the initial condition…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Gunter M. Schütz , Steffen Trimper

We investigate the role of stochastic resetting in non-Markovian systems, where memory effects arise due to slow relaxation, rugged energy landscapes, disordered environments, and molecular crowding. Using the celebrated continuous-time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-13 Suvam Pal , Rahul Das , Arnab Pal

Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-20 Lucas Maystre , Victor Kristof , Matthias Grossglauser

The first-passage time (FPT), defined as the time a random walker takes to reach a target point in a confining domain, is a key quantity in the theory of stochastic processes. Its importance comes from its crucial role to quantify the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-02-01 T. Guérin , N. Levernier , O. Bénichou , R. Voituriez

The discrete stochastic dynamics of a random walker in the presence of resetting and memory is analyzed. Resetting and memory effects may compete for certain parameter regime and lead to significant changes in the long time dynamics of the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-11-15 Upendra Harbola

Persistence, defined as the probability that a fluctuating signal has not reached a threshold up to a given observation time, plays a crucial role in the theory of random processes. It quantifies the kinetics of processes as varied as phase…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-10-12 N. Levernier , T. V. Mendes , O. Bénichou , R. Voituriez , T. Guérin

We study the problem of learning Markov decision processes with finite state and action spaces when the transition probability distributions and loss functions are chosen adversarially and are allowed to change with time. We introduce an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-03-14 Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori , Peter L. Bartlett , Csaba Szepesvari
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