Related papers: Moving Aggregate Modified Autoregressive Copula-Ba…
We propose a model for unbalanced longitudinal data, where the univariate margins can be selected arbitrarily and the dependence structure is described with the help of a D-vine copula. We show that our approach is an extremely flexible…
In order to capture the dependence in the upper tail of a time series, we develop non-negative regularly-varying time series models that are constructed similarly to classical non-extreme ARMA models. Rather than fully characterizing tail…
We study time-changed Markov processes to speed up the convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. The time-changed process is defined by adjusting the speed of time of a base process via a user-chosen, state-dependent…
We derive tests of stationarity for univariate time series by combining change-point tests sensitive to changes in the contemporary distribution with tests sensitive to changes in the serial dependence. The proposed approach relies on a…
We consider multivariate copula-based stationary time-series under Gaussian subordination. Observed time series are subordinated to long-range dependent Gaussian processes and characterized by arbitrary marginal copula distributions. First…
Temporal, spatial or spatio-temporal probabilistic models are frequently used for weather forecasting. The D-vine (drawable vine) copula quantile regression (DVQR) is a powerful tool for this application field, as it can automatically…
We establish sufficient conditions for the existence, and derive explicit formulas for the $\kappa$'th moments, $\kappa \geq 1$, of Markov modulated generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes as well as their stationary distributions. In…
The object of this paper is to study the asymptotic dependence structure of the linear time series models with infinitely divisible innovations by the use of their characteristic functions. Autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models and…
Multivariate time series analysis is becoming an integral part of data analysis pipelines. Understanding the individual time point connections between covariates as well as how these connections change in time is non-trivial. To this aim,…
A multivariate, stationary time series is said to be jointly regularly varying if all its finite-dimensional distributions are multivariate regularly varying. This property is shown to be equivalent to weak convergence of the conditional…
Within a high-frequency framework, we propose a non-parametric approach to estimate a family of copulas associated to a time-changed Brownian motion. We show that our estimator is consistent and asymptotically mixed-Gaussian. Furthermore,…
Dynamic linear models (DLM) offer a very generic framework to analyse time series data. Many classical time series models can be formulated as DLMs, including ARMA models and standard multiple linear regression models. The models can be…
Many time series applications require access to multi-step forecast trajectories in the form of sample paths. Recently, time series foundation models have leveraged multi-step lookahead predictions to improve the quality and efficiency of…
We consider the problem of modeling the dependence among many time series. We build high dimensional time-varying copula models by combining pair-copula constructions (PCC) with stochastic autoregressive copula (SCAR) models to capture…
This paper proposes the quantile unit-log-symmetric autoregressive moving average (QULS--ARMA) model for bounded time series on the open unit interval $(0,1)$. The model extends the unit-log-symmetric family by introducing a quantile-based…
The goal of this paper is to develop a measure for characterizing complex dependence between stationary time series that cannot be captured by traditional measures such as correlation and coherence. Our approach is to use copula models of…
To monitor critical infrastructure, high quality sensors sampled at a high frequency are increasingly used. However, as they produce huge amounts of data, only simple aggregates are stored. This removes outliers and fluctuations that could…
Rigby & Stasinopoulos (2005) introduced generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) where the response distribution is not restricted to belong to the exponential family and its parameters can be specified as…
We introduce a single generative mechanism with which it is able to describe diverse non-stationary diffusions. A non-stationary Markovian replication process for steps is considered, for which we analytically derive time-evolution of the…
We propose an extension of Markov-switching generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (MS-GAMLSS) that allows covariates to influence not only the parameters of the state-dependent distributions but also the state…