English
Related papers

Related papers: Online conformal prediction with decaying step siz…

200 papers

We study the problem of post-selection predictive inference in an online fashion. To avoid devoting resources to unimportant units, a preliminary selection of the current individual before reporting its prediction interval is common and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-02 Yajie Bao , Yuyang Huo , Haojie Ren , Changliang Zou

Conformal prediction has become increasingly popular for quantifying the uncertainty associated with machine learning models. Recent work in graph uncertainty quantification has built upon this approach for conformal graph prediction. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Pranav Maneriker , Aditya T. Vadlamani , Anutam Srinivasan , Yuntian He , Ali Payani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

We present a new fast online clustering algorithm that reliably recovers arbitrary-shaped data clusters in high throughout data streams. Unlike the existing state-of-the-art online clustering methods based on k-means or k-medoid, it does…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-06-11 Krzysztof Choromanski , Sanjiv Kumar , Xiaofeng Liu

In supervised learning, including regression and classification, conformal methods provide prediction sets for the outcome/label with finite sample coverage for any machine learning predictor. We consider here the case where such prediction…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Ulysse Gazin , Ruth Heller , Ariane Marandon , Etienne Roquain

Quantifying uncertainty in automatically generated text is important for letting humans check potential hallucinations and making systems more reliable. Conformal prediction is an attractive framework to provide predictions imbued with…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-02 Dennis Ulmer , Chrysoula Zerva , André F. T. Martins

We present methods for online linear optimization that take advantage of benign (as opposed to worst-case) sequences. Specifically if the sequence encountered by the learner is described well by a known "predictable process", the algorithms…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-05-27 Alexander Rakhlin , Karthik Sridharan

Off-policy evaluation is critical in a number of applications where new policies need to be evaluated offline before online deployment. Most existing methods focus on the expected return, define the target parameter through averaging and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-10 Yingying Zhang , Chengchun Shi , Shikai Luo

Conformal prediction is a general method that converts almost any point predictor to a prediction set. The resulting set keeps good statistical properties of the original estimator under standard assumptions, and guarantees valid average…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-02 Jing Lei

We revisit the online dynamic acknowledgment problem. In the problem, a sequence of requests arrive over time to be acknowledged, and all outstanding requests can be satisfied simultaneously by one acknowledgement. The goal of the problem…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2023-05-30 Sungjin Im , Benjamin Moseley , Chenyang Xu , Ruilong Zhang

We give a simple, generic conformal prediction method for sequential prediction that achieves target empirical coverage guarantees against adversarially chosen data. It is computationally lightweight -- comparable to split conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-03 Osbert Bastani , Varun Gupta , Christopher Jung , Georgy Noarov , Ramya Ramalingam , Aaron Roth

We present a new method for generating confidence sets within the split conformal prediction framework. Our method performs a trainable transformation of any given conformity score to improve conditional coverage while ensuring exact…

Existing high-dimensional online learning methods often face the challenge that their error bounds, or per-batch sample sizes, diverge as the number of data batches increases. To address this issue, we propose an asynchronous decomposition…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-24 Shixiang Liu , Zhifan Li , Hanming Yang , Jianxin Yin

We develop a one-Newton-step-per-horizon, online, lag-$L$, model predictive control (MPC) algorithm for solving discrete-time, equality-constrained, nonlinear dynamic programs. Based on recent sensitivity analysis results for the target…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-02-08 Sen Na , Mihai Anitescu

We present an online algorithm for reconstructing a signal from a set of non-uniform samples. By representing the signal using compactly supported basis functions, we show how estimating the expansion coefficients using least-squares can be…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-08-04 Justin Romberg

Conformal prediction (CP) is a wrapper around traditional machine learning models, giving coverage guarantees under the sole assumption of exchangeability; in classification problems, for a chosen significance level $\varepsilon$, CP…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-23 Javier Abad , Umang Bhatt , Adrian Weller , Giovanni Cherubin

This paper introduces multimodal conformal regression. Traditionally confined to scenarios with solely numerical input features, conformal prediction is now extended to multimodal contexts through our methodology, which harnesses internal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Alexis Bose , Jonathan Ethier , Paul Guinand

Resampling methods such as the bootstrap have proven invaluable in the field of machine learning. However, the applicability of traditional bootstrap methods is limited when dealing with large streams of dependent data, such as time series…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-28 Nicolai Palm , Thomas Nagler

Conformal prediction methods provide statistically rigorous marginal coverage guarantees for machine learning models, but such guarantees fail to account for algorithmic biases, thereby undermining fairness and trust. This paper introduces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Senrong Xu , Yanke Zhou , Yuhao Tan , Zenan Li , Yuan Yao , Taolue Chen , Feng Xu , Xiaoxing Ma

Conformal Prediction is a machine learning methodology that produces valid prediction regions under mild conditions. In this paper, we explore the application of making predictions over multiple data sources of different sizes without…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-15 Ola Spjuth , Lars Carlsson , Niharika Gauraha

In regression, conformal prediction is a general methodology to construct prediction intervals in a distribution-free manner. Although conformal prediction guarantees strong statistical property for predictive inference, its inherent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-01 Wenyu Chen , Zhaokai Wang , Wooseok Ha , Rina Foygel Barber