Related papers: An efficient multivariate volatility model for man…
This paper proposes a semiparametric stochastic volatility (SV) model that relaxes the restrictive Gaussian assumption in both the return and volatility error terms, allowing them to follow flexible, nonparametric distributions with…
The use of factor stochastic volatility models requires choosing the number of latent factors used to describe the dynamics of the financial returns process; however, empirical evidence suggests that the number and makeup of pertinent…
Economic and financial models -- such as vector autoregressions, local projections, and multivariate volatility models -- feature complex dynamic interactions and spillovers across many time series. These models can be integrated into a…
In this paper, we present a novel approach to the generation of virtual scenarios of multivariate financial data of arbitrary length and composition of assets. With this approach, decades of realistic time-synchronized data can be simulated…
In this paper we consider a variety of procedures for numerical statistical inference in the family of univariate and multivariate stable distributions. In connection with univariate distributions (i) we provide approximations by finite…
We present an econometric framework that adapts tools for scenario analysis, such as variants of conditional forecasts and generalized impulse responses, for use with dynamic nonparametric models. The proposed algorithms are based on…
We propose to model multivariate volatility processes based on the newly defined conditionally uncorrelated components (CUCs). This model represents a parsimonious representation for matrix-valued processes. It is flexible in the sense that…
Risk assessment for rare events is essential for understanding systemic stability in complex systems. As rare events are typically highly correlated, it is important to study heavy-tailed multivariate distributions of the relevant…
Volatility for financial assets returns can be used to gauge the risk for financial market. We propose a deep stochastic volatility model (DSVM) based on the framework of deep latent variable models. It uses flexible deep learning models to…
This paper discusses desirable properties of forecasting models in production systems. It then develops a family of models which are designed to satisfy these properties: highly customizable to capture complex patterns; accommodates a large…
This paper studies a robust portfolio optimization problem under the multi-factor volatility model introduced by Christoffersen et al. (2009). The optimal strategy is derived analytically under the worst-case scenario with or without…
The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure…
We consider a continuous-time stochastic volatility model. The model contains a stationary volatility process, the multivariate density of the finite dimensional distributions of which we aim to estimate. We assume that we observe the…
In this paper, a new way to integrate volatility information for estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a portfolio is suggested. The new method is developed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics and it…
Multivariate volatility modeling and forecasting are crucial in financial economics. This paper develops a copula-based approach to model and forecast realized volatility matrices. The proposed copula-based time series models can capture…
We show that financial correlations exhibit a non-trivial dynamic behavior. We introduce a simple phenomenological model of a multi-asset financial market, which takes into account the impact of portfolio investment on price dynamics. This…
We present a multivariate stochastic volatility model with leverage, which is flexible enough to recapture the individual dynamics as well as the interdependencies between several assets while still being highly analytically tractable.…
This paper describes a general approach for stochastic modeling of assets returns and liability cash-flows of a typical pensions insurer. On the asset side, we model the investment returns on equities and various classes of fixed-income…
Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…
We consider a mean-reverting stochastic volatility model which satisfies some relevant stylized facts of financial markets. We introduce an algorithm for the detection of peaks in the volatility profile, that we apply to the time series of…