A flexible forecasting model for production systems
Methodology
2021-05-05 v1
Abstract
This paper discusses desirable properties of forecasting models in production systems. It then develops a family of models which are designed to satisfy these properties: highly customizable to capture complex patterns; accommodates a large variety of objectives; has interpretable components; produces robust results; has automatic changepoint detection for trend and seasonality; and runs fast -- making it a good choice for reliable and scalable production systems. The model allows for seasonality at various time scales, events/holidays, and change points in trend and seasonality. The volatility is fitted separately to maintain flexibility and speed and is allowed to be a function of specified features.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2105.01098,
title = {A flexible forecasting model for production systems},
author = {Reza Hosseini and Kaixu Yang and Albert Chen and Sayan Patra},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2105.01098},
year = {2021}
}