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In causal inference about two treatments, Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) play an important role as a quantity representing an individualized causal effect, defined as a difference between the expected outcomes of the two…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-26 Masahiro Kato , Masaaki Imaizumi

Estimating treatment effects from observational data is challenging due to two main reasons: (a) hidden confounding, and (b) covariate mismatch (control and treatment groups not having identical distributions). Long lines of works exist…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-30 Praharsh Nanavati , Ranjitha Prasad , Karthikeyan Shanmugam

Outcome-dependent sampling designs are extensively utilized in various scientific disciplines, including epidemiology, ecology, and economics, with retrospective case-control studies being specific examples of such designs. Additionally, if…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-22 Min Zeng , Zeyang Jia , Zijian Sui , Jinfeng Xu , Hong Zhang

In observational causal inference, exact covariate matching plays two statistical roles: (i) it effectively controls for bias due to measured confounding; (ii) it justifies assumption-free inference based on randomization tests. This paper…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Kevin Guo , Dominik Rothenhäusler

Inferring causal effects of continuous-valued treatments from observational data is a crucial task promising to better inform policy- and decision-makers. A critical assumption needed to identify these effects is that all confounding…

Missing data in multiple variables is a common issue. We investigate the applicability of the framework of graphical models for handling missing data to a complex longitudinal pharmacological study of children with HIV treated with an…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-12 Anastasiia Holovchak , Helen McIlleron , Paolo Denti , Michael Schomaker

In some multivariate problems with missing data, pairs of variables exist that are never observed together. For example, some modern biological tools can produce data of this form. As a result of this structure, the covariance matrix is…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-13 Max Grazier G'Sell , Shai S. Shen-Orr , Robert Tibshirani

Robust estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is a fundamental challenge for optimal decision-making in domains ranging from personalized medicine to educational policy. In recent years, predictive machine learning has emerged as a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-23 Maximilian Schuessler , Erik Sverdrup , Robert Tibshirani

Causal inference in a program evaluation setting faces the problem of external validity when the treatment effect in the target population is different from the treatment effect identified from the population of which the sample is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Kyungchul Song , Zhengfei Yu

In social media platforms, user behavior is often influenced by interactions with other users, complicating the accurate estimation of causal effects in traditional A/B experiments. This study investigates situations where an individual's…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-02-21 Lu Deng , Yilin Li , JingJing Zhang , Yong Wang , Chuan Chen

The study of treatment effects is often complicated by noncompliance and missing data. In the one-sided noncompliance setting where of interest are the complier and noncomplier average causal effects (CACE and NACE), we address outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-25 Trang Quynh Nguyen , Michelle C. Carlson , Elizabeth A. Stuart

Accurately estimating treatment effects over time is crucial in fields such as precision medicine, epidemiology, economics, and marketing. Many current methods for estimating treatment effects over time assume that all confounders are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Mouad El Bouchattaoui , Myriam Tami , Benoit Lepetit , Paul-Henry Cournède

Practitioners often use data from a randomized controlled trial to learn a treatment assignment policy that can be deployed on a target population. A recurring concern in doing so is that, even if the randomized trial was well-executed…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-25 Lihua Lei , Roshni Sahoo , Stefan Wager

Covariate adjustment has the potential to increase power in the analysis of randomised trials, but mis-specification of the adjustment model could cause error. We explore what error is possible when the adjustment model omits a covariate by…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-16 Ian R. White , Tim P Morris , Elizabeth Williamson

Adversarial Missingness (AM) attacks aim to manipulate model fitting by carefully engineering a missing data problem to achieve a specific malicious objective. AM attacks are significantly different from prior data poisoning attacks in that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Deniz Koyuncu , Alex Gittens , Bülent Yener , Moti Yung

Dropout is common in clinical studies, with up to half of patients leaving early due to side effects or other reasons. When dropout is informative (i.e., dependent on survival time), it introduces censoring bias, because of which treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Yuxin Wang , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Maresa Schröder , Stefan Feuerriegel

Randomized trials are typically designed to detect average treatment effects but often lack the statistical power to uncover individual-level treatment effect heterogeneity, limiting their value for personalized decision-making. To address…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-19 Rickard Karlsson , Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , Issa J. Dahabreh , Jesse H. Krijthe

We study average treatment effect (ATE) estimation under complete randomization with many covariates in a design-based, finite-population framework. In randomized experiments, regression adjustment can improve precision of estimators using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-12 Dogyoon Song

Background: Although the missing covariate indicator method (MCIM) has been shown to be biased under extreme conditions, the degree and determinants of bias have not been formally assessed. We derived the formula for the relative bias in…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-01 Gang Xu , Mingyang Song , Xin Zhou , Yilun Wu , Mathew Pazaris , Donna Spiegelman

This paper is concerned with identification, estimation, and specification testing in causal evaluation problems when data is selective and/or missing. We leverage recent advances in the literature on graphical methods to provide a unifying…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-10 Simon Calmar Andersen , Louise Beuchert , Phillip Heiler , Helena Skyt Nielsen
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