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We study e-values for quantifying evidence against exchangeability and general invariance of a random variable under a compact group. We start by characterizing such e-values, and explaining how they nest traditional group invariance tests…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Nick W. Koning

We consider the problem of detection of sparse anomalies when monitoring a large number of data streams continuously in time. This problem is addressed using anytime-valid tests. In the context of a normal-means model and for a fixed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Muriel F. Pérez-Ortiz , Rui M. Castro

Non-parametric tests based on permutation, rotation or sign-flipping are examples of group-invariance tests. These tests test invariance of the null distribution under a set of transformations that has a group structure, in the algebraic…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-23 Nick W. Koning , Jesse Hemerik

We study worst-case-growth-rate-optimal (GROW) e-statistics for hypothesis testing between two group models. It is known that under a mild condition on the action of the underlying group G on the data, there exists a maximally invariant…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-18 Muriel Felipe Pérez-Ortiz , Tyron Lardy , Rianne de Heide , Peter Grünwald

We propose a sequential, anytime-valid method to test the conditional independence of a response $Y$ and a predictor $X$ given a random vector $Z$. The proposed test is based on e-statistics and test martingales, which generalize likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-22 Peter Grünwald , Alexander Henzi , Tyron Lardy

We address the problem of testing for the invariance of a probability measure under the action of a group of linear transformations. We propose a procedure based on consideration of one-dimensional projections, justified using a variant of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-20 Ricardo Fraiman , Leonardo Moreno , Thomas Ransford

Prediction sets provide a means of quantifying the uncertainty in predictive tasks. Using held out calibration data, conformal prediction and risk control can produce prediction sets that exhibit statistically valid error control in a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-05 Bror Hultberg , Dave Zachariah , Antônio H. Ribeiro

We introduce the anytime-valid (AV) logrank test, a version of the logrank test that provides type-I error guarantees under optional stopping and optional continuation. The test is sequential without the need to specify a maximum sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-02 J. ter Schure , M. F. Perez-Ortiz , A. Ly , P. Grunwald

We use a system of first-order partial differential equations that characterize the moment generating function of the $d$-variate standard normal distribution to construct a class of affine invariant tests for normality in any dimension. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-15 Norbert Henze , Jaco Visagie

Many experiments are concerned with the comparison of counts between treatment groups. Examples include the number of successful signups in conversion rate experiments, or the number of errors produced by software versions in canary…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-14 Michael Lindon , Alan Malek

We consider the group testing problem, in the case where the items are defective independently but with non-constant probability. We introduce and analyse an algorithm to solve this problem by grouping items together appropriately. We give…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-02-04 Tom Kealy , Oliver Johnson , Robert Piechocki

Linear models are foundational tools in statistics and ubiquitous across the applied sciences. However, conventional statistical inference -- such as $t$-tests and $F$-tests -- are only valid at fixed sample sizes, making them unsuitable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Michael Lindon , Dae Woong Ham , Martin Tingley , Iavor Bojinov

In the group testing problem the aim is to identify a small set of $k\sim n^\theta$ infected individuals out of a population size $n$, $0<\theta<1$. We avail ourselves of a test procedure capable of testing groups of individuals, with the…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2021-05-14 Amin Coja-Oghlan , Oliver Gebhard , Max Hahn-Klimroth , Philipp Loick

Statistical hypothesis tests typically use prespecified sample sizes, yet data often arrive sequentially. Interim analyses invalidate classical error guarantees, while existing sequential methods require rigid testing preschedules or incur…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-17 Chris Holmes , Stephen Walker

By inferring latent groups in the training data, recent works introduce invariant learning to the case where environment annotations are unavailable. Typically, learning group invariance under a majority/minority split is empirically shown…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Yimeng Chen , Ruibin Xiong , Zhiming Ma , Yanyan Lan

Group testing, a problem with diverse applications across multiple disciplines, traditionally assumes independence across nodes' states. Recent research, however, focuses on real-world scenarios that often involve correlations among nodes,…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-04-02 Hesam Nikpey , Saswati Sarkar , Shirin Saeedi Bidokhti

Standard high-dimensional factor models assume that the comovements in a large set of variables could be modeled using a small number of latent factors that affect all variables. In many relevant applications in economics and finance,…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-08 Antoine Djogbenou , Razvan Sufana

Motivated by the pressing request of methods able to create prediction sets in a general regression framework for a multivariate functional response and pushed by new methodological advancements in non-parametric prediction for functional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-04 Jacopo Diquigiovanni , Matteo Fontana , Simone Vantini

We discuss optimal prediction for families of probability distributions with a locally compact topological group structure. Right-invariant priors were previously shown to yield a posterior predictive distribution minimizing the worst-case…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Jannis Bolik , Thomas Hofmann

This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Yanfei Zhou , Matteo Sesia
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