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Anytime-Valid Tests for Sparse Anomalies

Statistics Theory 2025-07-01 v1 Statistics Theory

Abstract

We consider the problem of detection of sparse anomalies when monitoring a large number of data streams continuously in time. This problem is addressed using anytime-valid tests. In the context of a normal-means model and for a fixed sample, this problem is known to exhibit a nontrivial phase transition that characterizes when anomalies can and cannot be detected. We show, for the anytime-valid version of the problem, testing procedures that can detect the presence of anomalies quickly. Given that the goal is quick detection, existing approaches to anytime-valid testing that study how evidence accumulates for large times through log-optimality criteria is insufficient. This issue is addressed in this context by studying log-optimal procedures for a fixed moment in time, but as the number of streams grows larger. The resulting characterization is related to, but not implied by the existing results for fixed-sample tests. In addition, we also construct and analyze tests that are parameter-adaptive and exhibit optimal performance (in a well defined sense) even when the hypothesized model parameters are unknown. Numerical results illustrate the behavior of the proposed tests in comparison with oracle tests and suitable benchmarks.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2506.22588,
  title  = {Anytime-Valid Tests for Sparse Anomalies},
  author = {Muriel F. Pérez-Ortiz and Rui M. Castro},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2506.22588},
  year   = {2025}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T03:37:14.214Z