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In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…
Piecewise-Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs) hold significant promise for sampling from complex probability distributions. However, their practical implementation is hindered by the need to compute model-specific bounds. Conversely,…
Here, we explore the problem of error propagation mitigation in modular digital twins as a sequential decision process. Building on a companion study that used a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to infer latent error regimes from surrogate-physics…
In this paper, we introduce and study a convoluted version of the time fractional Poisson process by taking the discrete convolution with respect to space variable in the system of fractional differential equations that governs its state…
We describe a generalization of the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) which is able to encode prior information that state transitions are more likely between "nearby" states. This is accomplished by defining a…
In the present work we study Bayesian nonparametric inference for the continuous-time M/G/1 queueing system. In the focus of the study is the unobservable service time distribution. We assume that the only available data of the system are…
We study a continuous-time, infinite-horizon dynamic bipartite matching problem. Suppliers arrive according to a Poisson process; while waiting, they may abandon the queue at a uniform rate. Customers on the other hand must be matched upon…
Consider the batch-arrival $GI^X/M/c/N$ model with $c$ servers, general inter-arrival batch times, finite buffer, and exponential service times. Inter-arrival batch times, batch sizes, and service times are $i.i.d.$ and independent of each…
Birth-death processes (BDPs) are continuous-time Markov chains that track the number of "particles" in a system over time. While widely used in population biology, genetics and ecology, statistical inference of the instantaneous particle…
We consider a point process $i+\xi_i$, where $i\in \bZ$ and the $\xi_{i}$'s are i.i.d. random variables with variance $\sigma^{2}$. This process, with a suitable rescaling of the distribution of $\xi_i$'s, converges to the Poisson process…
We consider a broad class of continuous-time two-type population size-dependent Markov Branching Processes. The offspring distribution can depend on the current (alive) and total (dead and alive) populations. Using stochastic approximation…
Mixture models are a fundamental tool in applied statistics and machine learning for treating data taken from multiple subpopulations. The current practice for estimating the parameters of such models relies on local search heuristics…
Labeled continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) describe processes subject to random timing and partial observability. In applications such as runtime monitoring, we must incorporate past observations. The timing of these observations matters…
Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a flexible representation for real-world decision and control problems. However, POMDPs are notoriously difficult to solve, especially when the state and observation spaces are…
We introduce the BMRMM package implementing Bayesian inference for a class of Markov renewal mixed models which can characterize the stochastic dynamics of a collection of sequences, each comprising alternative instances of categorical…
Phase type (PH) distributions are widely used in modeling and simulation due to their generality and analytical properties. In such settings, it is often necessary to construct a PH distribution that aligns with real-world data by matching…
A large fraction of data generated via human activities such as online purchases, health records, spatial mobility etc. can be represented as a sequence of events over a continuous-time. Learning deep learning models over these…
In order to describe the extremal behaviour of some stochastic process $X$, approaches from univariate extreme value theory are typically generalized to the spatial domain. In particular, generalized peaks-over-threshold approaches allow…
We present a probabilistic model of events in continuous time in which each event triggers a Poisson process of successor events. The ensemble of observed events is thereby modeled as a superposition of Poisson processes. Efficient…
Direct simulation of biomolecular dynamics in thermal equilibrium is challenging due to the metastable nature of conformation dynamics and the computational cost of molecular dynamics. Biased or enhanced sampling methods may improve the…