Related papers: Fitting procedure for the two-state Batch Markov m…
Many applications in medical statistics as well as in other fields can be described by transitions between multiple states (e.g. from health to disease) experienced by individuals over time. In this context, multi-state models are a popular…
Branching processes are a class of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with ubiquitous applications. A general difficulty in statistical inference under partially observed CTMC models arises in computing transition probabilities when the…
We study Batch Processor-Sharing (BPS) queuing model with hyper-exponential service time distribution and Poisson batch arrival process. One of the main goals to study BPS is the possibility of its application in size-based scheduling,…
Rate processes are often modeled using Markov-State Models (MSM). Suppose you know a prior MSM, and then learn that your prediction of some particular observable rate is wrong. What is the best way to correct the whole MSM? For example,…
Bimodal truncated count distributions are frequently observed in aggregate survey data and in user ratings when respondents are mixed in their opinion. They also arise in censored count data, where the highest category might create an…
Piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) offer a powerful stochastic modeling framework that combines deterministic trajectories with random perturbations at random times. Estimating their local characteristics (particularly the…
Multi-state models are commonly used for intermittent observations of a state over time, but these are generally based on the Markov assumption, that transition rates are independent of the time spent in current and previous states. In a…
Conformal inference is a statistical method used to construct prediction sets for point predictors, providing reliable uncertainty quantification with probability guarantees. This method utilizes historical labeled data to estimate the…
Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are a general mathematical model for sequential decision-making in stochastic environments under state uncertainty. POMDPs are often solved \textit{online}, which enables the algorithm…
Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…
Accurately tracking and predicting behaviors of surrounding objects are key prerequisites for intelligent systems such as autonomous vehicles to achieve safe and high-quality decision making and motion planning. However, there still remain…
We study properties and parameter estimation of finite-state homogeneous continuous-time bivariate Markov chains. Only one of the two processes of the bivariate Markov chain is observable. The general form of the bivariate Markov chain…
In many applications involving spatial point patterns, we find evidence of inhibition or repulsion. The most commonly used class of models for such settings are the Gibbs point processes. A recent alternative, at least to the statistical…
Batch processes are inherently transient and typically nonlinear, motivating nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC). However, adopting NMPC is hindered by the cost and unavailability of dynamic models. Thus, we propose to use Gaussian…
We present an optimization-based framework for robust permissive synthesis for Interval Markov Decision Processes (IMDPs), motivated by robotic decision-making under transition uncertainty. In many robotic systems, model inaccuracies and…
We consider a class of branching processes called Markovian binary trees, in which the individuals lifetime and reproduction epochs are modeled using a transient Markovian arrival process (TMAP). We estimate the parameters of the TMAP based…
We present a new algorithm for identifying the transition and emission probabilities of a hidden Markov model (HMM) from the emitted data. Expectation-maximization becomes computationally prohibitive for long observation records, which are…
The Multiple Comparison Procedures with Modeling Techniques (MCP-Mod) framework has been recently approved by the U.S. Food and Administration and European Medicines Agency as fit-per-purpose for phase II studies. Nonetheless, this approach…
This report considers a fairly general model of constrained queuing networks that allows us to represent both MMBP (Markov Modulated Bernoulli Processes) arrivals and time-varying service constraints. We derive a set of sufficient…
We study the optimal sequencing of a batch of tasks on a machine subject to random disruptions driven by a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP), such that every disruption requires the interrupted task to be re-processed from scratch, and…