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Financial markets are interconnected, with micro-currents propagating across global markets and shaping economic trends. This paper moves beyond traditional stock market indices to examine cross-sectional return distributions-15 in our…
We first derive the primordial power spectra, spectral indices and runnings of both scalar and tensor perturbations of a flat inflationary universe to the second-order approximations of the slow-roll parameters, in the framework of loop…
The air transportation local share, defined as the proportion of local passengers relative to total passengers, serves as a critical metric reflecting how economic growth, carrier strategies, and market forces jointly influence demand…
This paper studies the optimal refund mechanism when an uninformed buyer can privately acquire information about his valuation of a product over time. We consider a class of refund mechanisms based on stochastic return policies: if the…
As predictive models are increasingly being deployed to make a variety of consequential decisions, there is a growing emphasis on designing algorithms that can provide recourse to affected individuals. Existing recourse algorithms function…
Financial stock returns correlations have been studied in the prism of random matrix theory, to distinguish the signal from the "noise". Eigenvalues of the matrix that are above the rescaled Marchenko Pastur distribution can be interpreted…
Asynchrony, overlaps and delays in sensory-motor signals introduce ambiguity as to which stimuli, actions, and rewards are causally related. Only the repetition of reward episodes helps distinguish true cause-effect relationships from…
State-of-the-art model-based reinforcement learning methods train policies on imagined rollouts. These rollouts are trajectories generated by a learned dynamics model and are scored by a learned reward model, but without querying the true…
Inspired by the turf-ball interaction in golf, this paper seeks to understand the bounce of a ball that can be modelled as a rigid sphere and the surface as supplying an elasto-plastic contact force in addition to Coulomb friction. A…
This paper develops theoretical criteria and econometric methods to rank policy interventions in terms of welfare when individuals are loss-averse. Our new criterion for "loss aversion-sensitive dominance" defines a weak partial ordering of…
We investigate the effects of update rules on the dynamics of an evolutionary game-theoretic model - the N-player evolutionary trust game - consisting of three types of players: investors, trustworthy trustees, and untrustworthy trustees.…
Fintech lending has become a central mechanism through which digital platforms stimulate consumption, offering dynamic, personalized credit limits that directly shape the purchasing power of consumers. Although prior research shows that…
Safety remains a central obstacle preventing widespread use of RL in the real world: learning new tasks in uncertain environments requires extensive exploration, but safety requires limiting exploration. We propose Recovery RL, an algorithm…
We consider a crowdsourcing data acquisition scenario, such as federated learning, where a Center collects data points from a set of rational Agents, with the aim of training a model. For linear regression models, we show how a payment…
In streaming platforms churn is extremely costly, yet A/B tests are typically evaluated using outcomes observed within a limited experimental horizon. Even when both short- and predicted long-term engagement metrics are considered, they may…
The emergence of ride-sourcing platforms has brought an innovative alternative in transportation, radically changed travel behaviors, and suggested new directions for transportation planners and operators. This paper provides an exploratory…
On-line portfolio selection has attracted increasing interests in machine learning and AI communities recently. Empirical evidences show that stock's high and low prices are temporary and stock price relatives are likely to follow the mean…
We present a simple dynamical model of stock index returns which is grounded on the ability of the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earning (CAPE) valuation ratio devised by Robert Shiller to predict long-horizon performances of the market. More…
There are many time series in the literature with high dimension yet limited sample sizes, such as macroeconomic variables, and it is almost impossible to obtain efficient estimation and accurate prediction by using the corresponding…
In retail (e.g., grocery stores, apparel shops, online retailers), inventory managers have to balance short-term risk (no items to sell) with long-term-risk (over ordering leading to product waste). This balancing task is made especially…