Related papers: Realized Stochastic Volatility Model with Skew-t D…
We compare systematically several classes of stochastic volatility models of stock market fluctuations. We show that the long-time return distribution is either Gaussian or develops a power-law tail, while the short-time return distribution…
Accurate volatility forecasts are vital in modern finance for risk management, portfolio allocation, and strategic decision-making. However, existing methods face key limitations. Fully multivariate models, while comprehensive, are…
In this paper we perform Bayesian estimation of stochastic volatility models with heavy tail distributions using Metropolis adjusted Langevin (MALA) and Riemman manifold Langevin (MMALA) methods. We provide analytical expressions for the…
Stochastic volatility (SV) models are nonlinear state-space models that enjoy increasing popularity for fitting and predicting heteroskedastic time series. However, due to the large number of latent quantities, their efficient estimation is…
Rough volatility models are very appealing because of their remarkable fit of both historical and implied volatilities. However, due to the non-Markovian and non-semimartingale nature of the volatility process, there is no simple way to…
The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…
Generating synthetic financial time series that preserve the statistical properties of real market data is essential for stress testing, risk model validation, and scenario design. Existing approaches struggle to simultaneously reproduce…
Skew-t copula models are attractive for the modeling of financial data because they allow for asymmetric and extreme tail dependence. We show that the copula implicit in the skew-t distribution of Azzalini and Capitanio (2003) allows for a…
A Bayesian procedure is developed for multivariate stochastic volatility, using state space models. An autoregressive model for the log-returns is employed. We generalize the inverted Wishart distribution to allow for different correlation…
We present a new volatility model, simple to implement, that includes a leverage effect whose return-volatility correlation function fits to empirical observations. This model is able to capture both the "retarded effect" induced by the…
A novel approach called Moate Simulation is presented to provide an accurate numerical evolution of probability distribution functions represented on grids arising from stochastic differential processes where initial conditions are…
Skew-elliptical distributions constitute a large class of multivariate distributions that account for both skewness and a variety of tail properties. This class has simpler representations in terms of densities rather than cumulative…
We revisit the problem of pricing options with historical volatility estimators. We do this in the context of a generalized GARCH model with multiple time scales and asymmetry. It is argued that the reason for the observed volatility risk…
In meta-analysis, the random-effects models are standard tools to address between-study heterogeneity in evidence synthesis analyses. For the random-effects distribution models, the normal distribution model has been adopted in most…
We develop a new stock market index that captures the chaos existing in the market by measuring the mutual changes of asset prices. This new index relies on a tensor-based embedding of the stock market information, which in turn frees it…
We consider an investor, whose portfolio consists of a single risky asset and a risk free asset, who wants to maximize his expected utility of the portfolio subject to the Value at Risk assuming a heavy tail distribution of the stock prices…
At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…
Skewness and non-Gaussian behavior are essential features of the distribution of short-scale velocity increments in isotropic turbulent flows. Yet, although the skewness has been generally linked to time-reversal symmetry breaking and…
A plethora of static and dynamic models exist to forecast Value-at-Risk and other quantile-related metrics used in financial risk management. Industry practice tends to favour simpler, static models such as historical simulation or its…
This dissertation investigates the ability of the Ising model to replicate statistical characteristics, or stylized facts, commonly observed in financial assets. The study specifically examines in the S&P500 index the following features:…