Related papers: Realized Stochastic Volatility Model with Skew-t D…
In this paper, the multivariate tail covariance (MTCov) for generalized skew-elliptical distributions is considered. Some special cases for this distribution, such as generalized skew-normal, generalized skew student-t, generalized…
Agents' heterogeneity is recognized as a driver mechanism for the persistence of financial volatility. We focus on the multiplicity of investment strategies' horizons, we embed this concept in a continuous time stochastic volatility…
Scenario generation is the construction of a discrete random vector to represent parameters of uncertain values in a stochastic program. Most approaches to scenario generation are distribution-driven, that is, they attempt to construct a…
This article proposes a new class of Real Elliptically Skewed (RESK) distributions and associated clustering algorithms that allow for integrating robustness and skewness into a single unified cluster analysis framework. Non-symmetrically…
Accurate volatility forecasting is essential in banking, investment, and risk management, because expectations about future market movements directly influence current decisions. This study proposes a hybrid modelling framework that…
We propose an alternative approach towards cost mitigation in volatility-managed portfolios based on smoothing the predictive density of an otherwise standard stochastic volatility model. Specifically, we develop a novel variational Bayes…
In some fields of applications of stable distributions, especially in economics, it appears, that data have distributions similar to stable in a large region, but do not have such heavy tails. Our aim in this note is to propose several…
Using a family of modified Weibull distributions, encompassing both sub-exponentials and super-exponentials, to parameterize the marginal distributions of asset returns and their multivariate generalizations with Gaussian copulas, we offer…
As the increasing application of AI in finance, this paper will leverage AI algorithms to examine tail risk and develop a model to alter tail risk to promote the stability of US financial markets, and enhance the resilience of the US…
Low-fidelity analytical models of turbine wakes have traditionally been used for wind farm planning, performance evaluation, and demonstrating the utility of advanced control algorithms in increasing the annual energy production. In…
The multivariate version of the Mixed Tempered Stable is proposed. It is a generalization of the Normal Variance Mean Mixtures. Characteristics of this new distribution and its capacity in fitting tails and capturing dependence structure…
We provide a simple method to estimate the parameters of multivariate stochastic volatility models with latent factor structures. These models are very useful as they alleviate the standard curse of dimensionality, allowing the number of…
The mean-variance portfolio model, based on the risk-return trade-off for optimal asset allocation, remains foundational in portfolio optimization. However, its reliance on restrictive assumptions about asset return distributions limits its…
To comply with increasingly stringent international standards in risk management and regulation, several approaches have been developed in the literature for forecasting tail-risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall…
Recently, the concept of tail dependence has been discussed in financial applications related to market or credit risk. The multivariate extreme value theory is a proper tool to measure and model dependence, for example, of large loss…
Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modeling the power-law tails of the…
We perform return interval analysis of 1-min {\em{realized volatility}} defined by the sum of absolute high-frequency intraday returns for the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC) and 22 constituent stocks of SSEC. The scaling…
Events such as the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 or the COVID-19 pandemic caused significant losses to banks and insurance entities. They also demonstrated the importance of using accurate equity risk models and having a risk management…
We forecast S&P 500 excess returns using a flexible Bayesian econometric state space model with non-Gaussian features at several levels. More precisely, we control for overparameterization via novel global-local shrinkage priors on the…
This work introduces a novel methodology based on finite mixtures of Student-t distributions to model the errors' distribution in linear regression models. The novelty lies on a particular hierarchical structure for the mixture distribution…