Related papers: Three Variations on Money Pump, Common Prior, and …
We consider a pair of traders in a market where the information available to the second trader is a strict subset of the information available to the first trader. The traders make prices based on the information available concerning a…
The method of maximum entropy (ME) is extended to address the following problem: Once one accepts that the ME distribution is to be preferred over all others, the question is to what extent are distributions with lower entropy supposed to…
We study the concept of financial bubble in a market model endowed with a set of probability measures, typically mutually singular to each other. In this setting we introduce the notions of robust bubble and robust fundamental value in a…
It is known that a player in a noncooperative game can benefit by publicly restricting his possible moves before play begins. We show that, more generally, a player may benefit by publicly committing to pay an external party an amount that…
This paper establishes for the first time the predictive performance of speed priors and their computational complexity. A speed prior is essentially a probability distribution that puts low probability on strings that are not efficiently…
The prior distribution for the unknown model parameters plays a crucial role in the process of statistical inference based on Bayesian methods. However, specifying suitable priors is often difficult even when detailed prior knowledge is…
Any strategy and prior probability together are a coherent conditional probability that can be extended, generally not in a unique way, to a full conditional probability. The corresponding class of extensions is studied and a closed form…
The randomization of a complete first order theory T is the complete continuous theory T^R with two sorts, a sort for random elements of models of T, and a sort for events in an underlying probability space. We give necessary and sufficient…
Standard models of multi-agent modal logic do not capture the fact that information is often ambiguous, and may be interpreted in different ways by different agents. We propose a framework that can model this, and consider different…
A number of writers have supposed that for the full specification of belief, higher order probabilities are required. Some have even supposed that there may be an unending sequence of higher order probabilities of probabilities of…
This paper relaxes the common prior assumption in the public and private information game of Morris and Shin (2000, 2004). For the generalized game, where the agent's prior expectations are heterogenous, it derives a sharp condition for the…
What is the best way to define algorithmic fairness? While many definitions of fairness have been proposed in the computer science literature, there is no clear agreement over a particular definition. In this work, we investigate ordinary…
According to the public goods game (PGG) protocol, participants decide freely whether they want to contribute to a common pool or not, but the resulting benefit is distributed equally. A conceptually similar dilemma situation may emerge…
We consider the problem of social choice when transfers between agents are possible. This includes several canonical applications: public-good provision, management of a common resource, settlement of debts, and division of goods. The…
The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference,…
Mechanism design is addressed in the context of fair allocations of indivisible goods with monetary compensation. Motivated by a real-world social choice problem, mechanisms with verification are considered in a setting where (i) agents'…
In Decentralized Finance (DeFi), automated market makers typically implement liquidity provisioning protocols. These protocols allow third-party liquidity providers (LPs) to provide assets to facilitate trade in exchange for fees. This…
Let $p_n$ be $n$th prime, and let $(S_n)_{n=1}^\infty:=(S_n)$ be the sequence of the sums of the first $2n$ consecutive primes, that is, $S_n=\sum_{k=1}^{2n}p_k$ with $n=1,2,\ldots$. Heuristic arguments supported by the corresponding…
Possibilistic logic offers a qualitative framework for representing pieces of information associated with levels of uncertainty of priority. The fusion of multiple sources information is discussed in this setting. Different classes of…
In this paper, we discuss a method to define prior distributions for the threshold of a generalised Pareto distribution, in particular when its applications are directed to heavy-tailed data. We propose to assign prior probabilities to the…