Related papers: Three Variations on Money Pump, Common Prior, and …
A new method for the computation of the posterior distribution of the number k of components in a finite mixture is presented. Two aspects of prior specification are also studied: an argument is made for the use of a Poisson(1) distribution…
The definition of the conditional probability is very important in the theory of the probability. This definition is based on the fact, that random events can be simultaneously measurable. This paper deal with the problem of conditioning…
A new simple model of financial market is proposed, based on the sequential and inter-temporal nature of trader-trader interaction, and on a new simple trading strategy space. In this pattern-based speculation model, the traders open and…
Reference analysis produces objective Bayesian inference, in the sense that inferential statements depend only on the assumed model and the available data, and the prior distribution used to make an inference is least informative in a…
The ranking problem is to order a collection of units by some unobserved parameter, based on observations from the associated distribution. This problem arises naturally in a number of contexts, such as business, where we may want to rank…
We investigate differences between a simple Dominance Principle applied to sums of fair prices for variables and dominance applied to sums of forecasts for variables scored by proper scoring rules. In particular, we consider differences…
This paper provides formulae and algorithms to compute the projection onto the core of a preimputation outside it. The core of a game is described using an exponential number of linear constraints, and we cannot know beforehand which are…
Pari-mutuel markets are trading platforms through which the common market maker simultaneously clears multiple contingent claims markets. This market has several distinctive properties that began attracting the attention of the financial…
Predictive constructions are a powerful way of characterizing the probability law of stochastic processes with certain forms of invariance, such as exchangeability or Markov exchangeability. When de Finetti-like representation theorems are…
This paper gives a critical account of the minority game literature. The minority game is a simple congestion game: players need to choose between two options, and those who have selected the option chosen by the minority win. The learning…
We introduce and analyze a variation of the Bertrand game in which the revenue is shared between two players. This game models situations in which one economic agent can provide goods/services to consumers either directly or through an…
Poker is one of the most popular card games, whose rational investigation represents also one of the major challenges in several scientific areas, spanning from information theory and artificial intelligence to game theory and statistical…
A competitive market is modeled as a game of incomplete information. One player observes some payoff-relevant state and can sell (possibly noisy) messages thereof to the other, whose willingness to pay is contingent on their own beliefs. We…
We introduce the concept of a multi-principal assistance game (MPAG), and circumvent an obstacle in social choice theory, Gibbard's theorem, by using a sufficiently collegial preference inference mechanism. In an MPAG, a single agent…
We consider a population of Bayesian agents who share a common prior over some finite state space and each agent is exposed to some information about the state. We ask which distributions over empirical distributions of posteriors beliefs…
We study convergence rates of variational posterior distributions for nonparametric and high-dimensional inference. We formulate general conditions on prior, likelihood, and variational class that characterize the convergence rates. Under…
Participatory budgeting refers to the practice of allocating public resources by collecting and aggregating individual preferences. Most existing studies in this field often assume an additive utility function, where each individual holds a…
In group decision making, the preference map and Cook-Seiford vector are two concepts as ways of describing ties-permitted ordinal rankings. This paper shows that they are equivalent for representing ties-permitted ordinal rankings.…
Several Artificial Intelligence schemes for reasoning under uncertainty explore either explicitly or implicitly asymmetries among probabilities of various states of their uncertain domain models. Even though the correct working of these…
Past efforts to classify impartial three-player combinatorial games (the theories of Li and Straffin) have made various restrictive assumptions about the rationality of one's opponents and the formation and behavior of coalitions. One may…