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Posterior drift refers to changes in the relationship between responses and covariates while the distributions of the covariates remain unchanged. In this work, we explore functional linear regression under posterior drift with transfer…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-20 Xiaoyu Hu , Zhenhua Lin

We propose a simple, statistically principled, and theoretically justified method to improve supervised learning when the training set is not representative, a situation known as covariate shift. We build upon a well-established methodology…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-12 Maximilian Autenrieth , David A. van Dyk , Roberto Trotta , David C. Stenning

Survival models incorporating random effects to account for unmeasured heterogeneity are being increasingly used in biostatistical and applied research. Specifically, unmeasured covariates whose lack of inclusion in the model would lead to…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-06 Alessandro Gasparini , Mark S. Clements , Keith R. Abrams , Michael J. Crowther

Imbalanced data distributions are prevalent in real-world scenarios, posing significant challenges in both imbalanced classification and imbalanced regression tasks. They often cause deep learning models to overfit in areas of high sample…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-31 Guangkun Nie , Gongzheng Tang , Shenda Hong

Covariate shift is a common transfer learning scenario where the marginal distributions of input variables vary between source and target data while the conditional distribution of the output variable remains consistent. The existing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-23 Petr Zamolodtchikov , Hanyuan Hang

Machine Learning Force Fields (MLFFs) are a promising alternative to expensive ab initio quantum mechanical molecular simulations. Given the diversity of chemical spaces that are of interest and the cost of generating new data, it is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Tobias Kreiman , Aditi S. Krishnapriyan

It is becoming increasingly common in regression to train neural networks that model the entire distribution even if only the mean is required for prediction. This additional modeling often comes with performance gain and the reasons behind…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Ehsan Imani , Kai Luedemann , Sam Scholnick-Hughes , Esraa Elelimy , Martha White

Educational policymakers often lack data on student outcomes where standardized tests were not administered. Machine learning can predict unobserved outcomes in target populations using source population data. However, covariate…

The most recent multi-source covariate shift algorithm is an efficient hyperparameter optimization algorithm for missing target output. In this paper, we extend this algorithm to the framework of federated learning. For data islands in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-01 Yaqian Xu , Wenquan Cui , Jianjun Xu , Haoyang Cheng

Machine learning has demonstrated remarkable prediction accuracy over i.i.d data, but the accuracy often drops when tested with data from another distribution. In this paper, we aim to offer another view of this problem in a perspective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-20 Haohan Wang , Zeyi Huang , Hanlin Zhang , Yong Jae Lee , Eric Xing

In performative prediction, the deployment of a predictive model triggers a shift in the data distribution. As these shifts are typically unknown ahead of time, the learner needs to deploy a model to get feedback about the distribution it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Meena Jagadeesan , Tijana Zrnic , Celestine Mendler-Dünner

Many existing approaches for generating predictions in settings with distribution shift model distribution shifts as adversarial or low-rank in suitable representations. In various real-world settings, however, we might expect shifts to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-31 Kirk Bansak , Elisabeth Paulson , Dominik Rothenhäusler

We discuss the role of misspecification and censoring on Bayesian model selection in the contexts of right-censored survival and concave log-likelihood regression. Misspecification includes wrongly assuming the censoring mechanism to be…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-15 David Rossell , Francisco Javier Rubio

Distribution shift is a common situation in machine learning tasks, where the data used for training a model is different from the data the model is applied to in the real world. This issue arises across multiple technical settings: from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Nicolas Acevedo , Carmen Cortez , Chris Brooks , Rene Kizilcec , Renzhe Yu

Machine learning models are often brittle under distribution shift, i.e., when data distributions at test time differ from those during training. Understanding this failure mode is central to identifying and mitigating safety risks of mass…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-04 Alex Nguyen , David J. Schwab , Vudtiwat Ngampruetikorn

In many real-world regression tasks, the data distribution is heavily skewed, and models learn predominantly from abundant majority samples while failing to predict minority labels accurately. While imbalanced classification has been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Shayan Alahyari

Transfer learning is a critical part of real-world machine learning deployments and has been extensively studied in experimental works with overparameterized neural networks. However, even in the simplest setting of linear regression a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Neil Mallinar , Austin Zane , Spencer Frei , Bin Yu

Data augmentation plays a pivotal role in enhancing and diversifying training data. Nonetheless, consistently improving model performance in varied learning scenarios, especially those with inherent data biases, remains challenging. To…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Xiaoling Zhou , Wei Ye , Zhemg Lee , Rui Xie , Shikun Zhang

A key problem in the theory of meta-learning is to understand how the task distributions influence transfer risk, the expected error of a meta-learner on a new task drawn from the unknown task distribution. In this paper, focusing on fixed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-15 Mikhail Konobeev , Ilja Kuzborskij , Csaba Szepesvári

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for causal inference, and justify simple comparisons across treatment groups. Regression adjustment provides a convenient way to incorporate covariate information for additional efficiency. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-25 Anqi Zhao , Peng Ding