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Related papers: Functional Limit Theorems for Hawkes Processes

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We give a general Gaussian bound for the first chaos (or innovation) of point processes with stochastic intensity constructed by embedding in a bivariate Poisson process. We apply the general result to nonlinear Hawkes processes, providing…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-29 Giovanni Luca Torrisi

We investigate branching processes in nearly degenerate varying environment, where the offspring distribution converges to the degenerate distribution at 1. Such processes die out almost surely, therefore, we condition on non-extinction or…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-05 Peter Kevei , Kata Kubatovics

We give functional laws of large numbers for a class of marked Hawkes processes and marked compound Hawkes processes with a general mark space. Our results provide some complement to those presented previously in the literature. As an…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-29 Tomasz R. Bielecki , Jacek Jakubowski , Mariusz iewȩgłowski , Anatoliy Swishchuk

We investigate the limit behavior of supercritical multitype branching processes in random environments with linear fractional offspring distributions and show that there exists a phase transition in the behavior of local probabilites of…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-10-25 Wenming Hong , Minzhi Liu , Vladimir Vatutin

We consider the long-term behaviour of critical multitype branching processes conditioned on non-extinction, both with respect to the forward and the ancestral processes. Forward in time, we prove a functional limit theorem in the space of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-01 Ellen Baake , Fernando Cordero , Sophia-Marie Mellis , Vitali Wachtel

Hawkes processes are a popular framework to model the occurrence of sequential events, i.e., occurrence dynamics, in several fields such as social diffusion. In real-world scenarios, the inter-arrival time among events is irregular.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Minju Jo , Seungji Kook , Noseong Park

Properties of strong mixing have been established for the stationary linear Hawkes process in the univariate case, and can serve as a basis for statistical applications. In this paper, we provide the technical arguments needed to extend the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-21 Ousmane Boly , Felix Cheysson , Thi Hien Nguyen

Genuinely critical dynamics have been proposed to organize many natural and social systems, yet exact criticality is usually thought to preclude stationarity because the mean activity diverges. I show that this conclusion is not generally…

General Physics · Physics 2026-05-26 Didier Sornette

In this paper, we quantitative convergence in $W_2$ for a family of Langevin-like stochastic processes that includes stochastic gradient descent and related gradient-based algorithms. Under certain regularity assumptions, we show that the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-03 Xiang Cheng , Peter L. Bartlett , Michael I. Jordan

We establish central limit theorems for a large class of supercritical branching Markov processes in infinite dimension with spatially dependent and non-necessarily local branching mechanisms. This result relies on a fourth moment…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-31 Bertrand Cloez , Nicolás Zalduendo

Functional limit theorems for scaled fluctuations of occupation time processes of a sequence of critical branching particle systems in $\R^d$ with anisotropic space motions and strongly degenerated splitting abilities are proved in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-30 Yuqiang LI

We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process with constraints on its conditional density. It is a multivariate point process with conditional intensity similar to that of a multivariate Hawkes process but certain events are forbidden with…

Applications · Statistics 2014-02-14 Ban Zheng , François Roueff , Frédéric Abergel

Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-27 Deborah Sulem , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-03 Guillaume Staerman , Cédric Allain , Alexandre Gramfort , Thomas Moreau

In the last decade Hawkes processes have received much attention as models for functional connectivity in neural spiking networks and other dynamical systems with a cascade behavior. In this paper we establish a renewal approach for…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-11 Mads Bonde Raad

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Maximilian Nickel , Matthew Le

We establish a functional weak law of large numbers for observable macroscopic state variables of interacting particle systems (e.g., voter and contact processes) over fast time-varying sparse random networks of interactions. We show that,…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-01 Augusto Almeida Santos , Soummya Kar , José M. F. Moura , João Xavier

We introduce a broad class of self-similar processes $\{Z(t),t\ge 0\}$ called generalized Hermite process. They have stationary increments, are defined on a Wiener chaos with Hurst index $H\in (1/2,1)$, and include Hermite processes as a…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-15 Shuyang Bai , Murad S. Taqqu

We establish a new class of functional central limit theorems for partial sum of certain symmetric stationary infinitely divisible processes with regularly varying L\'{e}vy measures. The limit process is a new class of symmetric stable…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-16 Takashi Owada , Gennady Samorodnitsky

Hawkes processes are a class of self-exciting point processes that are used to model complex phenomena. While most applications of Hawkes processes assume that event data occurs in continuous-time, the less-studied discrete-time version of…

Applications · Statistics 2023-06-01 Trinnhallen Brisley , Gordon Ross , Daniel Paulin , Jake Easto
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