Related papers: Estimation of AMOC transition probabilities using …
The tipping of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to a 'shutdown' state due to changes in the freshwater forcing of the ocean is of particular interest and concern due to its widespread ramifications, including a…
A catastrophic collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will have serious impacts on global climate. Based on eight AMOC proxies across the Atlantic basin Boers claimed to have found Early Warning Signals (EWS)…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and polar ice sheets are coupled tipping elements, allowing for potential cascading tipping events in which tipping is facilitated by their mutual interactions. However, while an AMOC…
Branching processes are a class of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) prevalent for modeling stochastic population dynamics in ecology, biology, epidemiology, and many other fields. The transient or finite-time behavior of these systems…
The extent of anthropogenic influence on the Earths climate warrants studies of the ocean as a major player. The ocean circulation is important for transporting properties like heat, carbon and nutrients. A supposed major conduit is the…
Adaptive multilevel splitting algorithms have been introduced rather recently for estimating tail distributions in a fast and efficient way. In particular, they can be used for computing the so-called reactive trajectories corresponding to…
Computing the return times of extreme events and assessing the impact of climate change on such return times is fundamental to extreme event attribution studies. However, the rarity of such events in the observational record makes this task…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a much studied component of the climate system, because its suspected multistability is associated with tipping behaviour yielding potentially large regional and global climatic…
We study a model for a dilute suspension of rod-like particles swimming at constant velocity in a Stokes flow. As the translational diffusivity of the particles decreases, a two-dimensional uniform concentration of randomly aligned…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is a crucial part of the climate system because of its associated northward heat transport. The present-day MOC is sensitive to freshwater anomalies and may collapse to a state with a…
The Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (AMS) algorithm is a powerful and versatile method for the simulation of rare events. It is based on an interacting (via a mutation-selection procedure) system of replicas, and depends on two integer…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the Earth's climate. Evidence indicates a twentieth-century weakening, and enhanced freshwater input to the subpolar North Atlantic may further reduce overturning…
The Atlantic surface currents associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) play a central role in regulating Earth's climate, yet their large scale dynamical response to climate variability remains poorly…
Although the Bayesian paradigm offers a formal framework for estimating the entire probability distribution over uncertain parameters, its online implementation can be challenging due to high computational costs. We suggest the Adaptive…
Estimating the probability of failures or accidents with aerospace systems is often necessary when new concepts or designs are introduced, as it is being done for Autonomous Aircraft. If the design is safe, as it is supposed to be, accident…
Climate science needs more efficient ways to study high-impact, low-probability extreme events, which are rare by definition and costly to simulate in large numbers. Rare event sampling (RES) and ensemble boosting use small perturbations to…
We study hysteresis properties of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under a slowly-varying North Atlantic (20$^{\circ}$N -- 50$^{\circ}$N) freshwater flux forcing in state-of-the-art Global Climate Model (GCM), the…
The global ocean meridional overturning circulation (GMOC) is central for ocean transport and climate variations. However, a comprehensive picture of its historical mean state and variability remains vague due to limitations in modelling…
The Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is a system of surface and deep currents encompassing all ocean basins, crucial to the Earth's climate. Detecting potential climatic changes in the MOC first requires a careful characterisation…