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Complex Earth System Models are widely utilised to make conditional statements about the future climate under some assumptions about changes in future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations; these statements are often referred to as…

In this paper an efficient model based diagnostic process is described for systems whose components possess a causal relation between their inputs and their outputs. In this diagnostic process, firstly, a set of focuses on likely broken…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-09-21 Nico Roos

Degradation modeling has traditionally relied on historical signals to estimate the behavior of the underlying degradation process. Many models assume that these historical signals are acquired under the same environmental conditions and…

Applications · Statistics 2014-12-04 Rensheng Zhou , Nicoleta Serban , Nagi Gebraeel

Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) is one of the major approaches in reliability engineering which allows accurate estimation of reliability characteristics of highly reliable systems within a relatively short time. The testing data are…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-28 Helmi Shat , Norbert Gaffke

Advances in data collection are producing growing volumes of temporal count observations, making adapted modeling increasingly necessary. In this work, we introduce a generative framework for independent component analysis of temporal count…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-30 Alexandre Chaussard , Anna Bonnet , Sylvain Le Corff

Existing studies indicate that complex system degradation is characterized by degradation of multiple dependent parameters. Capturing the dependencies is crucial for accurate degradation modeling and effective degradation control. This work…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-14 Shi-Shun Chen , Shuai Gao , Xiao-Yang Li , Enrico Zio

We introduce a non-homogeneous fractional Poisson process by replacing the time variable in the fractional Poisson process of renewal type with an appropriate function of time. We characterize the resulting process by deriving its non-local…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-18 N. Leonenko , E. Scalas , M. Trinh

In this article we consider an aggregate loss model with dependent losses. The losses occurrence process is governed by a two-state Markovian arrival process (MAP2), a Markov renewal process process that allows for (1) correlated…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-06 Pepa Ramírez-Cobo , Emilio Carrizosa , Rosa Elvira Lillo

Learning-based control methods typically assume stationary system dynamics, an assumption often violated in real-world systems due to drift, wear, or changing operating conditions. We study reinforcement learning for control under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Klemens Iten , Bruce Lee , Chenhao Li , Lenart Treven , Andreas Krause , Bhavya Sukhija

Machine learning models are essential tools in various domains, but their performance can degrade over time due to changes in data distribution or other factors. On one hand, detecting and addressing such degradations is crucial for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-28 Florian Heinrichs

The degradation of sewer pipes poses significant economical, environmental and health concerns. The maintenance of such assets requires structured plans to perform inspections, which are more efficient when structural and environmental…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-14 Fidae El Morer , Stefan Wittek , Andreas Rausch

When complex systems are driven to extinction by some external factor, their non-stationary dynamics can present an intermittent behaviour between relative tranquility and burst of activity whose consequences are often catastrophic. To…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-03-21 Juan V Escobar , Isaac Pérez Castillo

We consider a model for substrate-depletion oscillations in genetic systems, based on a stochastic differential equation with a slowly evolving external signal. We show the existence of critical transitions in the system. We apply two…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2014-03-13 Jesse Berwald , Marian Gidea

Observing a load process above high thresholds, modeling it as a pulse process with random occurrence times and magnitudes, and extrapolating life-time maximum or design loads from the data is a common task in structural reliability…

Applications · Statistics 2015-07-28 Baidurya Bhattacharya

This paper studies the joint moments of a compound discounted renewal process observed at different times with each arrival removed from the system after a random delay. This process can be used to describe the aggregate (discounted)…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-10 Eric Cheung , Landy Rabehasaina , Jae-Kyung Woo , Ran Xu

We define a model of a system that deteriorate as a result of (i) shocks, modeled as a compound Poisson process and (ii) deterministic, state dependent progressive rate, with variable and fixed maintenance cost. We define maintenance…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-06-04 Mauricio Junca

This paper presents a maintenance policy for a modular system formed by K independent modules (n-subsystems) subjected to environmental conditions (shocks). For the modeling of this complex system, the use of the Matrix-Analytical Method…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-01-23 M. L. Gamiz , D. Montoro-Cazorla , M. C. Segovia-Garcia

This study presents the approach to analyzing the evolution of an arbitrary complex system whose behavior is characterized by a set of different time-dependent factors. The key requirement for these factors is only that they must contain an…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-12-01 Anatolii V. Mokshin , Vladimir V. Mokshin , Diana A. Mirziyarova

In this paper, we develop a new method to estimate the parameters of a deteriorating system under perfect condition-based maintenance. This method is based on the asymptotical behavior of the system, which is studied by using the renewal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-07-15 Philippe Briand , Edwige Idée , Céline Labart

Real-world non-autonomous systems are open, out-of-equilibrium systems that evolve in and are driven by temporally varying environments. Such systems can show multiple timescale and transient dynamics together with transitions to very…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-07-12 Klaus Lehnertz