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A switching random walk, commonly known under the misnomer `oscillating random walk', is a real-valued Markov chain whose distribution of increments is determined by the sign of the current position. We explicitly identify an invariant…
Given that a stationary Gaussian process is above a high threshold, the length of time it spends before going below that threshold is studied. The asymptotic order is determined by the smoothness of the sample paths, which in turn is a…
We propose a scalable semiparametric Bayesian model to capture dependencies among multiple neurons by detecting their co-firing (possibly with some lag time) patterns over time. After discretizing time so there is at most one spike at each…
The contributions of independent noise sources to the variability of action potential timing has not previously been studied at the level of individual directed molecular transitions within a conductance-based model ion-state graph. The…
We consider a time-inhomogeneous diffusion process able to describe the dynamics of infected people in a susceptible-infectious epidemic model in which the transmission intensity function is time-dependent. Such a model is well suited to…
Numerical approximation of the long time behavior of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) is considered. Error estimates for time-averaging estimators are obtained and then used to show that the stationary behavior of the numerical…
Obtaining a reduced description with particle and momentum flux densities outgoing from the microscopic equations of motion of the particles requires approximations. The usual method, we refer to as truncation method, is to zero Fourier…
We study a diffusion approximation for a model of stochastic motion of a particle in one spatial dimension. The velocity of the particle is constant but the direction of the motion undergoes random changes with a Poisson clock. Moreover,…
Stochastic variational inference algorithms are derived for fitting various heteroskedastic time series models. We examine Gaussian, t, and skew-t response GARCH models and fit these using Gaussian variational approximating densities. We…
We consider the problem of `discrete-time persistence', which deals with the zero-crossings of a continuous stochastic process, X(T), measured at discrete times, T = n(\Delta T). For a Gaussian Stationary Process the persistence (no…
The diffusion approximation of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in current literature is only valid on a finite time interval. In this paper, we establish the uniform-in-time diffusion approximation of SGD, by only assuming that the…
We study the fractal properties of the distances between consecutive primes. The distance sequence is found to be well described by a non-stationary exponential probability distribution. We propose an intensity-expansion method to treat…
We introduce a scalable approach to Gaussian process inference that combines spatio-temporal filtering with natural gradient variational inference, resulting in a non-conjugate GP method for multivariate data that scales linearly with…
Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is a powerful optimization technique that is particularly useful in online learning scenarios. Its convergence analysis is relatively well understood under the assumption that the data samples are…
In this paper, we study the diffusion approximation for slow-fast stochastic differential equations with state-dependent switching, where the slow component $X^{\varepsilon}$ is the solution of a stochastic differential equation with…
Sample average approximation (SAA), a popular method for tractably solving stochastic optimization problems, enjoys strong asymptotic performance guarantees in settings with independent training samples. However, these guarantees are not…
We use Stein's method to obtain a bound on the distance between scaled $p$-dimensional random walks and a $p$-dimensional (correlated) Brownian Motion. We consider dependence schemes including those in which the summands in scaled sums are…
Strict stationarity is a common assumption used in the time series literature in order to derive asymptotic distributional results for second-order statistics, like sample autocovariances and sample autocorrelations. Focusing on weak…
Many approximate Bayesian inference methods assume a particular parametric form for approximating the posterior distribution. A multivariate Gaussian distribution provides a convenient density for such approaches; examples include the…
This paper introduces the novel class of modulated cyclostationary processes, a class of non-stationary processes exhibiting frequency coupling, and proposes a method of their estimation from repeated trials. Cyclostationary processes also…