Related papers: An analysis of protesting activity and trauma thro…
This paper is concerned with modeling the dynamics of social outbursts of activity, such as protests or rioting activity. In this sequel to our work in \cite{Berestycki2014}, written in collaboration with J-P. Nadal, we model the effect of…
Analysis of gun violence in the United States has utilized various models based on spatiotemporal point processes. Previous studies have identified a contagion effect in gun violence, characterized by bursts of diffusion across urban…
The mathematical modeling of crowds is complicated by the fact that crowds possess the behavioral ability to develop and adapt moving strategies in response to the context. For example, in emergency situations, people tend to alter their…
Crowd movement guidance has been a fascinating problem in various fields, such as easing traffic congestion in unusual events and evacuating people from an emergency-affected area. To grab the reins of crowds, there has been considerable…
The right to protest is perceived as one of the primary civil rights. Citizens participate in mass demonstrations to express themselves and exercise their democratic rights. However, because of the large number of participants, protests may…
The following is a write up of the progress of modeling data from the K12 organization \cite{Riedman_2023}. Data was characterized and investigated for statistically significant factors. The incident data was spilt into three sets: the…
During the last years, statistical physics has received an increasing attention as a framework for the analysis of real complex systems; yet, this is less clear in the case of international political events, partly due to the complexity in…
We test the hypothesis that protest participation decisions in an adult population of potential climate protesters are interdependent. Subjects (n=1,510) from the four largest German cities were recruited two weeks before protest date. We…
I present a unified discussion of several recently published results concerning the escalation, timing and severity of violent events in human conflicts and global terrorism, and set them in the wider context of real-world and cyber-based…
Applied Difference-in-Differences studies often involve outcomes that are discrete, mixed, censored, or otherwise non-continuously distributed, while policy questions frequently concern distributional effects rather than mean effects alone.…
The article presents a proposal to contextualize the study of movement in first courses of university physics, as a contribution to decision-making in situations of a social nature. For this, the case of the use of kinetic impact…
This paper provides an overview and critical analysis on the modeling and applications of the dynamics of human crowds, where social interactions can have an important influence on the behavioral dynamics of the crowd viewed as a living,…
This discussion paper demonstrates how longitudinal sentiment analyses can depict intertemporal dynamics on social media platforms, what challenges are inherent and how further research could benefit from a longitudinal perspective.…
The rich and dynamic information environment of social media provides researchers, policy makers, and entrepreneurs with opportunities to learn about social phenomena in a timely manner. However, using these data to understand social…
Physics-based and statistic-based models for describing seismic occurrence are two sides of the same coin. In this article we compare the temporal organization of events obtained in a spring-block model for the seismic fault with the one…
Riots and protests, if gone out of control, can cause havoc in a country. We have seen examples of this, such as the BLM movement, climate strikes, CAA Movement, and many more, which caused disruption to a large extent. Our motive behind…
Regimes routinely conceal acts of repression. We show that observed repression may be negatively correlated with total repression, consisting of both revealed and concealed acts. This distortion can generate perverse effects for policy…
The monitoring of conflict risk in the humanitarian sector is largely based on simple historic averages. The overarching goal of this work is to assess the potential for using a more statistically rigorous approach to monitor the risk of…
This paper evaluates the effect of online disinformation upon offline political protests with a time series cross-sectional sample of 125 countries in a period between 2000 and 2019. The results are mixed. Based on Bayesian multi-level…
Timely and accurate conflict event data are essential for real-time monitoring, forecasting, and policy response. Yet near-real-time conflict datasets such as the Armed Conflict Location \& Event Data Project (ACLED) are subject to…