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It is common that in multiarm randomized trials, the outcome of interest is "truncated by death," meaning that it is only observed or well defined conditioning on an intermediate outcome. In this case, in addition to pairwise contrasts, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-22 Linbo Wang , Thomas S. Richardson , Xiao-Hua Zhou

Many sequential decision settings in healthcare feature funnel structures characterized by a series of stages, such as screenings or evaluations, where the number of patients who advance to each stage progressively decreases and decisions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Shuvom Sadhuka , Sophia Lin , Bonnie Berger , Emma Pierson

We introduce a statistical framework for combining data from multiple large longitudinal cardiovascular cohorts to enable the study of long-term cardiovascular health starting in early adulthood. Using data from seven cohorts belonging to…

This paper develops a sparsity-inducing version of Bayesian Causal Forests, a recently proposed nonparametric causal regression model that employs Bayesian Additive Regression Trees and is specifically designed to estimate heterogeneous…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-17 Alberto Caron , Gianluca Baio , Ioanna Manolopoulou

In this study, we present a novel Survival Analysis algorithm designed to efficiently handle large-scale longitudinal data. Our approach draws inspiration from Reinforcement Learning principles, particularly the Deep Q-Network paradigm,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Mariana Vargas Vieyra , Pascal Frossard

Although propensity scores have been central to the estimation of causal effects for over 30 years, only recently has the statistical literature begun to consider in detail methods for Bayesian estimation of propensity scores and causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-09 Corwin M. Zigler

Classification is a well-studied machine learning task which concerns the assignment of instances to a set of outcomes. Classification models support the optimization of managerial decision-making across a variety of operational business…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Wouter Verbeke , Diego Olaya , Jeroen Berrevoets , Sam Verboven , Sebastián Maldonado

We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Magid Sabbagh , David A. Stephens

The stochastic system approach to causality is applied to situations where the risk of death is not negligible. This approach grounds causality on physical laws, distinguishes system and observation and represents the system by multivariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-07 Daniel Commenges

Principal stratification is essential for revealing causal mechanisms involving post-treatment intermediate variables, in real-world applications like surrogate marker evaluation. Principal stratification analysis with continuous…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-31 Yichi Zhang , Shu Yang

Learning causal effects of a binary exposure on time-to-event endpoints can be challenging because survival times may be partially observed due to censoring and systematically biased due to truncation. In this work, we present debiased…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-15 Eric R. Morenz , Charles J. Wolock , Marco Carone

Surrogate markers offer the potential to reduce the burden of data collection by replacing costly or invasive primary outcomes with more accessible measurements, provided that they can faithfully indicate the effectiveness of a treatment.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Silvaneo V. dos Santos , Layla Parast

Causal effect estimation is a critical task in statistical learning that aims to find the causal effect on subjects by identifying causal links between a number of predictor (or, explanatory) variables and the outcome of a treatment. In a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Tathagata Basu , Matthias C. M. Troffaes

In estimating the causal effect of a continuous exposure or treatment, it is important to control for all confounding factors. However, most existing methods require parametric specification for how control variables influence the outcome…

Applications · Statistics 2020-07-21 Spencer Woody , Carlos M. Carvalho , P. Richard Hahn , Jared S. Murray

Causal mediation analysis seeks to investigate how the treatment effect of an exposure on outcomes is mediated through intermediate variables. Although many applications involve longitudinal data, the existing methods are not directly…

Applications · Statistics 2021-02-24 Shuxi Zeng , Stacy Rosenbaum , Elizabeth Archie , Susan Alberts , Fan Li

Causal inference in the presence of intermediate variables is a challenging problem in many applications. Principal stratification (PS) provides a framework to estimate principal causal effects (PCE) in such settings. However, existing PS…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-20 Lei Yang , Michael J. Daniels , Fan Li

Functional data consist of trajectories observed over a continuous domain, such as time, space, or wavelength. Here we consider curves observed on different groups of subjects and propose a Bayesian multi-group functional factor analysis…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Xuanye Dai , Anna Gottard , Michele Guindani , Marina Vannucci

While tabular foundation models have achieved remarkable success in classification and regression, adapting them to model time-to-event outcomes for survival analysis is non-trivial due to right-censoring, where data observations may end…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Da In Kim , Wei Siang Lai , Kelly W. Zhang

Dropout is common in clinical studies, with up to half of patients leaving early due to side effects or other reasons. When dropout is informative (i.e., dependent on survival time), it introduces censoring bias, because of which treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Yuxin Wang , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Maresa Schröder , Stefan Feuerriegel

We propose a novel method for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects based on the fused lasso. By first ordering samples based on the propensity or prognostic score, we match units from the treatment and control groups. We then run the…