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The semantics for counterfactuals due to David Lewis has been challenged on the basis of unlikely, or impossible, events. Such events may skew a given similarity order in favour of those possible worlds which exhibit them. By updating the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2016-06-28 Patrick Girard , Marcus Anthony Triplett

Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C have been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, determination of liability, and policy analysis. We present a method of revaluating counterfactuals when the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Alexander Balke , Judea Pearl

Counterfactual reasoning is a foundational topic in both philosophical and logical studies \cite{Stalnaker1968-STAATO-5, Lewis1973-LEWC-2}. A pivotal component of counterfactual analysis is the concept of similarity between possible worlds…

Logic · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Marta Esteves

The logico-algebraic study of Lewis's hierarchy of variably strict conditional logics has been essentially unexplored, hindering our understanding of their mathematical foundations, and the connections with other logical systems. This work…

Logic · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Giuliano Rosella , Sara Ugolini

Counterfactual reasoning plays a crucial role in exploring hypothetical scenarios, by comparing some consequent under conditions identical except as results from a differing antecedent. David Lewis' well-known analysis evaluates…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Ingita Banerjee , Kiarn T. Laverick , Howard M. Wiseman

Counterfactual Explanations (CEs) are a powerful technique used to explain Machine Learning models by showing how the input to a model should be minimally changed for the model to produce a different output. Similar proposals have been made…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-01 Nicola Gigante , Francesco Leofante , Andrea Micheli

We present a computationally grounded semantics for counterfactual conditionals in which i) the state in a model is decomposed into two elements: a propositional valuation and a causal base in propositional form that represents the causal…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Carlos Aguilera-Ventura , Xinghan Liu , Emiliano Lorini , Dmitry Rozplokhas

Lewis' theory of counterfactuals is the foundation of many contemporary notions of causality. In this paper, we extend this theory in the temporal direction to enable symbolic counterfactual reasoning on infinite sequences, such as…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Bernd Finkbeiner , Julian Siber

Counterfactual reasoning and contextuality is defined and critically evaluated with regard to its nonempirical content. To this end, a uniqueness property of states, explosion views and link observables are introduced. If only a single…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-11-10 Karl Svozil

Galles and Pearl claimed that "for recursive models, the causal model framework does not add any restrictions to counterfactuals, beyond those imposed by Lewis's [possible-worlds] framework." This claim is examined carefully, with the goal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-08-20 Joseph Y. Halpern

Counterfactual explanations are usually obtained by identifying the smallest change made to an input to change a prediction made by a fixed model (hereafter called sparse methods). Recent work, however, has revitalized an old insight: there…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-24 Martin Pawelczyk , Klaus Broelemann , Gjergji Kasneci

Counterfactual explanations have been argued to be one of the most intuitive forms of explanation. They are typically defined as a minimal set of edits on a given data sample that, when applied, changes the output of a model on that sample.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-30 Edmund Dervakos , Konstantinos Thomas , Giorgos Filandrianos , Giorgos Stamou

Counterfactual inference considers a hypothetical intervention in a parallel world that shares some evidence with the factual world. If the evidence specifies a conditional distribution on a manifold, counterfactuals may be analytically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-03 Juha Karvanen , Santtu Tikka , Matti Vihola

In this work we propose a different surgical modified model for the construction of counterfactual variables under non parametric structural equation models. This approach allows the simultaneous representation of counterfactual responses…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-08 Julieta Molina , Lucio Pantazis , Mariela Sued

Counterfactual explanations are gaining prominence within technical, legal, and business circles as a way to explain the decisions of a machine learning model. These explanations share a trait with the long-established "principal reason"…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2019-12-12 Solon Barocas , Andrew D. Selbst , Manish Raghavan

We tackle the problem of computing counterfactual explanations -- minimal changes to the features that flip an undesirable model prediction. We propose a solution to this question for linear Support Vector Machine (SVMs) models. Moreover,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-16 Sebastian Salazar , Samuel Denton , Ansaf Salleb-Aouissi

Counterfactuals are a concept inherited from the field of logic and in general attain to the existence of causal relations between sentences or events. In particular, this concept has been introduced also in the context of interpretability…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-01-23 Pierluigi Francesco De Paola , Jared Miller , Alessandro Borri , Alessia Paglialonga , Fabrizio Dabbene

Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C have been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, and determination of liability. In this paper we present methods for computing the probabilities of such…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-28 Alexander Balke , Judea Pearl

In this work, we show that a counterfactual account of L"uders' rule -- which we argue is naturally implied by the mathematical structure of the rule itself -- rules out underlying-state models of quantum mechanics (a type of…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-21 Alisson Tezzin , Bárbara Amaral , Jonte R. Hance

In many applications, it is important to be able to explain the decisions of machine learning systems. An increasingly popular approach has been to seek to provide \emph{counterfactual instance explanations}. These specify close possible…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Adam White , Artur d'Avila Garcez
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