Related papers: Approximating reproduction numbers: a general nume…
Analysing age-specific mortality, fertility, and migration patterns is a crucial task in demography with significant policy relevance. In practice, such analysis is challenging when studying a large number of subpopulations, due to small…
In this paper we consider a size-structured population model where individuals may be recruited into the population at different sizes. First and second order finite difference schemes are developed to approximate the solution of the…
This study presents a framework for high-resolution mortality simulations tailored to insured and general populations. Due to the scarcity of detailed demographic-specific mortality data, we leverage Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) and…
We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration rates for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
We consider a continuous-time Markov chain model of SIR disease dynamics with two levels of mixing. For this so-called stochastic households model, we provide two methods for inferring the model parameters---governing within-household…
We investigate the time evolution of disease spread on a network by using the concept of generations. We derive a set of equations, which can be used to determine the average epidemic size. We find a very good agreement between the…
By linking conceptual theories with observed data, generative models can support reasoning in complex situations. They have come to play a central role both within and beyond statistics, providing the basis for power analysis in molecular…
Mortality patterns at a subnational level or across subpopulations are often used to examine the health of a population. In small populations, however, death counts are erratic. To deal with this problem, demographers have proposed…
We propose a stochastic model for evolution. Births and deaths of species occur with constant probabilities. Each new species is associated with a fitness sampled from the uniform distribution on [0,1]. Every time there is a death event…
A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…
We use a simple model for biological ageing to study the mortality of the population, obtaining a good agreement with the Gompertz law. We also simulate the same model on a square lattice, considering different strategies of parental care.…
The iterative random subdivision of rectangles is used as a generation model of networks in physics, computer science, and urban planning. However, these researches were independent. We consider some relations in them, and derive…
This article is concerned with a version of the contact process with sexual reproduction on a graph with two levels of interactions modeling metapopulations. The population is spatially distributed into patches and offspring are produced in…
We discuss general concept of Markov statistical dynamics in the continuum. For a class of spatial birth-and-death models, we develop a perturbative technique for the construction of statistical dynamics. Particular examples of such systems…
In human face-based biometrics, gender classification and age estimation are two typical learning tasks. Although a variety of approaches have been proposed to handle them, just a few of them are solved jointly, even so, these joint methods…
Generative modelling with Transformer architectures can simulate complex sequential structures across various applications. We extend this line of work to the social sciences by introducing a Transformer-based generative model tailored to…
We consider the general character of the spatial distribution of a population that grows through reproduction and subsequent local resettlement of new population members. We present several simple one and two-dimensional point placement…
Age dependent population dynamics are frequently modeled with generalizations of the classic McKendrick-von Foerster equation. These are deterministic systems, and a stochastic generalization was recently reported in [1,2]. Here we develop…
We study a model for the spread of an infectious disease which incorporates spatial and temporal effects. The model is a delayed multi-type branching process in which types represent geographic regions while infected individuals reproduce…