Related papers: Approximating reproduction numbers: a general nume…
The MIXANDMIX (mixtures by Anderson mixing) tool for the computation of the empirical spectral distribution of random matrices generated by mixtures of populations is described. Within the population mixture model the mapping between the…
We propose an approximation of nonlinear renewal equations by means of ordinary differential equations. We consider the integrated state, which is absolutely continuous and satisfies a delay differential equation. By applying the…
The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. We developed a…
We consider extinction times for a class of birth-death processes commonly found in applications, where there is a control parameter which determines whether the population quickly becomes extinct, or rather persists for a long time. We…
Mathematical modeling is one of the key factors of the effective control of newly found infectious diseases, such as COVID-19. Our knowledge about the parameters and the course of the infection is highly limited in the beginning of the…
The Penna model is a strategy to simulate the genetic dynamics of age-structured populations, in which the individuals genomes are represented by bit-strings. It provides a simple metaphor for the evolutionary process in terms of the…
Demographic attributes are universally present in electronic health records. They are the most widespread information across populations and diseases, and serve as vital predictors in clinical risk stratification and treatment decisions.…
BACKGROUND. The majority of countries in Africa and nearly one third of all countries require mortality models to infer complete age schedules of mortality, required for population estimates, projections/forecasts and many other tasks in…
We consider a general branching population where the lifetimes of individuals are i.i.d.\ with arbitrary distribution and where each individual gives birth to new individuals at Poisson times independently from each other. In addition, we…
We have proposed an SEIR compartmental mathematical model. The prime objective of this study is to analyze and forecast the pandemic in Italy for the upcoming months. The basic reproduction number has been calculated. Based on the current…
Performance analysis based on modelling consists of two major steps: model construction and model analysis. Formal modelling techniques significantly aid model construction but can exacerbate model analysis. In particular, here we consider…
The link between age and migration propensity is long established, but existing models of country-level net migration ignore the effect of population age distribution on past and projected migration rates. We propose a method to estimate…
We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a…
Compartmental epidemic models with dynamics that evolve over a graph network have gained considerable importance in recent years but analysis of these models is in general difficult due to their complexity. In this paper, we develop two…
We present a new method of modelling numerical systems where there are two distinct output solution classes, for example tipping points or bifurcations. Gaussian process emulation is a useful tool in understanding these complex systems and…
Correctly capturing the symmetry transformations of data can lead to efficient models with strong generalization capabilities, though methods incorporating symmetries often require prior knowledge. While recent advancements have been made…
In this paper, we use a linear birth and death process with immigration to model infectious disease propagation when contamination stems from both person-to-person contact and contact with the environment. Our aim is to estimate the…
In this work we address the analysis of discrete-time models of structured metapopulations subject to environmental stochasticity. Previous works on these models made use of the fact that migrations between the patches can be considered…
In this paper we study a diffusive age structured epidemic model with disease transmission between vector and host populations. The dynamics of the populations are described by reaction-diffusion equations, with infection age structure of…
Two-dimensional array-based datasets are pervasive in a variety of domains. Current approaches for generative modeling have typically been limited to conventional image datasets and performed in the pixel domain which do not explicitly…