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A method to predict time-series using multiple deep learners and a Bayesian network is proposed. In this study, the input explanatory variables are Bayesian network nodes that are associated with learners. Training data are divided using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-19 Shusuke Kobayashi , Susumu Shirayama

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) promise improved generalization under covariate shift by providing principled probabilistic representations of epistemic uncertainty. However, weight-based BNNs often struggle with high computational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-13 Trung Trinh , Markus Heinonen , Luigi Acerbi , Samuel Kaski

A new Bayesian software package for the analysis of pulsar timing data is presented in the form of TempoNest which allows for the robust determination of the non-linear pulsar timing solution simultaneously with a range of additional…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2013-12-04 Lindley Lentati , Paul Alexander , Michael P. Hobson , Farhan Feroz , Rutger van Haasteren , Kejia Lee , Ryan M. Shannon

The rampdown phase of a tokamak pulse is difficult to simulate and often exacerbates multiple plasma instabilities. To reduce the risk of disrupting operations, we leverage advances in Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) to combine physics…

Deep-learning-based data-driven forecasting methods have produced impressive results for traffic forecasting. A major limitation of these methods, however, is that they provide forecasts without estimates of uncertainty, which are critical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-07 Tanwi Mallick , Prasanna Balaprakash , Jane Macfarlane

Context: Astronomy and astrophysics demand rigorous handling of uncertainties to ensure the credibility of outcomes. The growing integration of artificial intelligence offers a novel avenue to address this necessity. This convergence…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-03-28 Víctor Tamames-Rodero , Andrés Moya , Roberto Javier López , Luis Manuel Sarro

We implement a Bayesian inference process for Neural Networks to model the time to failure of highly reliable weapon systems with interval-censored data and time-varying covariates. We analyze and benchmark our approach, LaplaceNN, on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-09 Michael Potter , Miru Jun

Pedestal is the key to conventional high performance plasma scenarios in tokamaks. However, high fidelity simulations of pedestal plasmas are extremely challenging due to the multiple physical processes and scales that are encompassed by…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2023-03-08 Adam Kit , Aaro Jaervinen , Lorenzo Frassinetti , Sven Wiesen , JET Contributors

An accurate evolution model is crucial for effective control and in-depth study of fusion plasmas. Evolution methods based on physical models often encounter challenges such as insufficient robustness or excessive computational costs. Given…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2025-01-27 Yunfei Ling , Zijie Liu , Jun Du , Yao Huang , Yuehang Wang , Bingjia Xiao , Xin Fang

While deep neural networks have become the go-to approach in computer vision, the vast majority of these models fail to properly capture the uncertainty inherent in their predictions. Estimating this predictive uncertainty can be crucial,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-08 Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Martin Danelljan , Thomas B. Schön

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) hold great promise as a flexible and principled solution to deal with uncertainty when learning from finite data. Among approaches to realize probabilistic inference in deep neural networks, variational Bayes…

Deep neural networks are increasingly being used for the analysis of medical images. However, most works neglect the uncertainty in the model's prediction. We propose an uncertainty-aware deep kernel learning model which permits the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Zhiliang Wu , Yinchong Yang , Jindong Gu , Volker Tresp

Randomized algorithms are used in many state-of-the-art solvers for constraint satisfaction problems (CSP) and Boolean satisfiability (SAT) problems. For many of these problems, there is no single solver which will dominate others. Having…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-25 Jake Tuero , Michael Buro

Deep neural networks achieve impressive results across diverse applications, yet their overconfidence on unseen inputs necessitates reliable epistemic uncertainty modelling. Existing methods for uncertainty modelling face a fundamental…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-04 Yao Ni , Jeremie Houssineau , Yew Soon Ong , Piotr Koniusz

Dealing with uncertainty is essential for efficient reinforcement learning. There is a growing literature on uncertainty estimation for deep learning from fixed datasets, but many of the most popular approaches are poorly-suited to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-16 Ian Osband , John Aslanides , Albin Cassirer

In this work, we investigate the value of uncertainty modeling in 3D super-resolution with convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Deep learning has shown success in a plethora of medical image transformation problems, such as…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-05-31 Ryutaro Tanno , Daniel E. Worrall , Aurobrata Ghosh , Enrico Kaden , Stamatios N. Sotiropoulos , Antonio Criminisi , Daniel C. Alexander

Transient stability assessment is an integral part of dynamic security assessment of power systems. Traditional methods of transient stability assessment, such as time domain simulation approach and direct methods, are appropriate for…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-11-23 Umair Shahzad

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have made a revolution in numerous fields during the last decade. However, in tasks with high safety requirements, such as medical or autonomous driving applications, providing an assessment of the models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-20 Omer Achrack , Raizy Kellerman , Ouriel Barzilay

This paper considers the problem of sequential fusion of predictions from neural networks (NN) and fusion of predictions from multiple NN. This fusion strategy increases the robustness, i.e., reduces the impact of one incorrect…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-10-13 Magnus Malmström , Isaac Skog , Daniel Axehill , Fredrik Gustafsson

Diagnosis and prediction in some domains, like medical and industrial diagnosis, require a representation that combines uncertainty management and temporal reasoning. Based on the fact that in many cases there are few state changes in the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Gustavo Arroyo-Figueroa , Luis Enrique Sucar