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The weighted average treatment effect (WATE) is a causal measure for the comparison of interventions in a specific target population, which may be different from the population where data are sampled from. For instance, when the goal is to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-17 Yebin Tao , Haoda Fu

State-level policy studies often conduct heterogeneity analyses that quantify how treatment effects vary across state characteristics. These analyses may be used to inform state-specific policy decisions, or to infer how the effect of a…

The use of machine learning systems to support decision making in healthcare raises questions as to what extent these systems may introduce or exacerbate disparities in care for historically underrepresented and mistreated groups, due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-16 Stephen Pfohl , Tony Duan , Daisy Yi Ding , Nigam H. Shah

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) frequently utilize covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR) (e.g., stratified block randomization) and commonly suffer from imperfect compliance. This paper studies the identification and inference for the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-02 Federico A. Bugni , Mengsi Gao , Filip Obradovic , Amilcar Velez

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian

Analyzing data from multiple sources offers valuable opportunities to improve the estimation efficiency of causal estimands. However, this analysis also poses many challenges due to population heterogeneity and data privacy constraints.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-23 Rong Zhao , Jason Falvey , Xu Shi , Vernon M. Chinchilli , Chixiang Chen

Contrastive learning relies on constructing a collection of negative examples that are sufficiently hard to discriminate against positive queries when their representations are self-trained. Existing contrastive learning methods either…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-08 Qianjiang Hu , Xiao Wang , Wei Hu , Guo-Jun Qi

Federated learning of causal estimands may greatly improve estimation efficiency by leveraging data from multiple study sites, but robustness to heterogeneity and model misspecifications is vital for ensuring validity. We develop a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-06 Larry Han , Jue Hou , Kelly Cho , Rui Duan , Tianxi Cai

Estimation of temporal counterfactual outcomes from observed history is crucial for decision-making in many domains such as healthcare and e-commerce, particularly when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) suffer from high cost or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Chuizheng Meng , Yihe Dong , Sercan Ö. Arık , Yan Liu , Tomas Pfister

Individual treatment effect estimation has gained significant attention in recent data science literature. This work introduces the Double Neural Network (Double-NN) method to address this problem within the framework of extended fiducial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-06 Sehwan Kim , Faming Liang

This paper considers identification and estimation of causal effect parameters from participating in a binary treatment in a difference in differences (DID) setup when the parallel trends assumption holds after conditioning on observed…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-25 Carolina Caetano , Brantly Callaway , Stroud Payne , Hugo Sant'Anna Rodrigues

The particle filter (PF) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) are widely used for approximate inference in state-space models. From a Bayesian perspective, these algorithms represent the prior by an ensemble of particles and update it to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-11 Chengxin Gong , Wei Lin , Cheng Zhang

Sufficient physical activity and restful sleep play a major role in the prevention and cure of many chronic conditions. Being able to proactively screen and monitor such chronic conditions would be a big step forward for overall health. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-19 Karan Aggarwal , Shafiq Joty , Luis Fernandez-Luque , Jaideep Srivastava

We consider the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in a semi-supervised learning setting, where a very small proportion of the entire set of observations are labeled with the true outcome but features predictive of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-27 David Cheng , Ashwin Ananthakrishnan , Tianxi Cai

In semi-logarithmic regressions, treatment coefficients are often interpreted as approximations of the average treatment effect (ATE) in percentage points. This paper highlights the overlooked bias of this approximation under treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-04 Ying Zeng

We study the benign overfitting theory in the prediction of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE), with linear regression models. As the development of machine learning for causal inference, a wide range of large-scale models for…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-17 Masahiro Kato , Masaaki Imaizumi

Measuring treatment effects in observational studies is challenging because of confounding bias. Confounding occurs when a variable affects both the treatment and the outcome. Traditional methods such as propensity score matching estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Bevan I. Smith , Charles Chimedza

Learning meaningful representations that maintain the content necessary for a particular task while filtering away detrimental variations is a problem of great interest in machine learning. In this paper, we tackle the problem of learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-01-30 Qizhe Xie , Zihang Dai , Yulun Du , Eduard Hovy , Graham Neubig

In this paper, we consider estimation of average treatment effect on the treated (ATT), an interpretable and relevant causal estimand to policy makers when treatment assignment is endogenous. By considering shadow variables that are…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-21 Trinetri Ghosh , Jiawei Shan , Menggang Yu , Jiwei Zhao

Balancing influential covariates is crucial for valid treatment comparisons in clinical studies. While covariate-adaptive randomization is commonly used to achieve balance, its performance can be inadequate when the number of baseline…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-30 Ziqing Guo , Yang Liu , Lucy Xia