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The paper proposes a time-varying parameter global vector autoregressive (TVP-GVAR) framework for predicting and analysing developed region economic variables. We want to provide an easily accessible approach for the economy application…
In many regression settings the unknown coefficients may have some known structure, for instance they may be ordered in space or correspond to a vectorized matrix or tensor. At the same time, the unknown coefficients may be sparse, with…
Existing models for high-dimensional time series are overwhelmingly developed within the finite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) framework. However, the more flexible vector autoregressive moving averages (VARMA) have been much less…
The challenging problem of conducting fully Bayesian inference for the reaction rate constants governing stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) is considered. Given the challenges underlying this problem, the Markov jump process representation is…
Survival analysis is an important area of medical research, yet existing models often struggle to balance simplicity with flexibility. Simple models require minimal adjustments but come with strong assumptions, while more flexible models…
For a general class of dynamic and stochastic structural models, we show that (i) non-linearity in economic dynamics is a necessary and sufficient condition for time-varying parameters (TVPs) in the reduced-form VARMA process followed by…
Multi-output Gaussian process (MGP) is commonly used as a transfer learning method to leverage information among multiple outputs. A key advantage of MGP is providing uncertainty quantification for prediction, which is highly important for…
We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…
There has been increased research interest in the subfield of sparse Bayesian factor analysis with shrinkage priors, which achieve additional sparsity beyond the natural parsimonity of factor models. In this spirit, we estimate the number…
A new shrinkage-based construction is developed for a compressible vector $\boldsymbol{x}\in\mathbb{R}^n$, for cases in which the components of $\xv$ are naturally associated with a tree structure. Important examples are when $\xv$…
In this paper, selection of an active sensor subset for tracking a discrete time, finite state Markov chain having an unknown transition probability matrix (TPM) is considered. A total of N sensors are available for making observations of…
Recovering a low-rank signal matrix from its noisy observation, commonly known as matrix denoising, is a fundamental inverse problem in statistical signal processing. Matrix denoising methods are generally based on shrinkage or thresholding…
This paper proposes a straightforward algorithm to carry out inference in large time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) with mixture innovation components for each coefficient in the system. We significantly decrease the…
This paper presents a new variable selection approach integrated with Gaussian process (GP) regression. We consider a sparse projection of input variables and a general stationary covariance model that depends on the Euclidean distance…
We introduce a new shrinkage prior on function spaces, called the functional horseshoe prior (fHS), that encourages shrinkage towards parametric classes of functions. Unlike other shrinkage priors for parametric models, the fHS shrinkage…
In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold…
While stochastic variational inference is relatively well known for scaling inference in Bayesian probabilistic models, related methods also offer ways to circumnavigate the approximation of analytically intractable expectations. The key…
This paper introduces a linear state-space model with time-varying dynamics. The time dependency is obtained by forming the state dynamics matrix as a time-varying linear combination of a set of matrices. The time dependency of the weights…
We introduce a class of randomly time-changed fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility models and, using spectral theory and singular perturbation techniques, we derive an approximation for the prices of European options in this setting.…
We propose an online algorithm for tracking a multidimensional time-varying parameter of a time series, which is also allowed to be a predictable process with respect to the underlying time series. The algorithm is driven by a gain…