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We consider data-driven approaches that integrate a machine learning prediction model within distributionally robust optimization (DRO) given limited joint observations of uncertain parameters and covariates. Our framework is flexible in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-05-26 Rohit Kannan , Güzin Bayraksan , James R. Luedtke

Modeling complex dynamical systems under varying conditions is computationally intensive, often rendering high-fidelity simulations intractable. Although reduced-order models (ROMs) offer a promising solution, current methods often struggle…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-16 Andrew F. Ilersich , Kevin Course , Prasanth B. Nair

Closure models are widely used in simulating complex multiscale dynamical systems such as turbulence and the earth system, for which direct numerical simulation that resolves all scales is often too expensive. For those systems without a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Xinghao Dong , Chuanqi Chen , Jin-Long Wu

Safe control of constrained linear systems under both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is considered. The aleatory uncertainty characterizes random noises and is modeled by a probability distribution function (PDF) and the epistemic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-28 Hamidreza Modares

The data-driven discovery of interpretable models approximating the underlying dynamics of a physical system has gained attraction in the past decade. Current approaches employ pre-specified functional forms or basis functions and often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Rahul Golder , M. M. Faruque Hasan

We develop a new computational framework to solve the partial differential equations (PDEs) governing the flow of the joint probability density functions (PDFs) in continuous-time stochastic nonlinear systems. The need for computing the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-08-08 Kenneth F. Caluya , Abhishek Halder

This paper presents a unified framework for uncertainty propagation in dynamical systems involving hybrid aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The framework accommodates precise probabilistic, imprecise probabilistic, and non-probabilistic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-12 Yi Luo , Meng-Ze Lyu , Matteo Broggi , Marko Thiele , Vasileios C. Fragkoulis , Michael Beer

We consider the statistics for the vorticity field in two-dimensional homogeneous isotropic turbulence (HIT). First, we exploit the invariance properties to derive dimensionally reduced governing equations for the one-point and two-point…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-20 Qian Huang , Simon Görtz , Paul Hollmann , Johannes Conrad , Christian Rohde , Martin Oberlack

Data assimilation (DA) addresses the problem of sequentially estimating the state of a dynamical system from noisy and incomplete observations. In this work, we employ a diffusion model as a world model to simulate and predict the system's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 Lifu Wei , Yinuo Ren , Naichen Shi , Yiping Lu

We investigate the stabilization of unstable multidimensional partially observed single-sensor and multi-sensor linear systems driven by unbounded noise and controlled over discrete noiseless channels under fixed-rate information…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2012-09-21 Andrew P. Johnston , Serdar Yüksel

Fitting nonlinear dynamical models to sparse and noisy observations is fundamentally challenging. Identifying dynamics requires data assimilation (DA) to estimate system states, but DA requires an accurate dynamical model. To break this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-12 Vadim Zinchenko , David S. Greenberg

Discrete diffusion models with absorbing processes have shown promise in language modeling. The key quantities to be estimated are the ratios between the marginal probabilities of two transitive states at all timesteps, called the concrete…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Jingyang Ou , Shen Nie , Kaiwen Xue , Fengqi Zhu , Jiacheng Sun , Zhenguo Li , Chongxuan Li

Mathematical models based on probability density functions (PDF) have been extensively used in hydrology and subsurface flow problems, to describe the uncertainty in porous media properties (e.g., permeability modelled as random field).…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2020-06-01 Matteo Icardi , Marco Dentz

Time series of observables measured from complex systems do often exhibit non-normal statistics, their statistical distributions (PDF's) are not gaussian and often skewed, with roughly exponential tails. Departure from gaussianity is…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-06-29 F. Sattin

Unveiling the underlying governing equations of nonlinear dynamic systems remains a significant challenge. Insufficient prior knowledge hinders the determination of an accurate candidate library, while noisy observations lead to imprecise…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Mengge Du , Yuntian Chen , Longfeng Nie , Siyu Lou , Dongxiao Zhang

Model order reduction techniques simplify high-dimensional dynamical systems by deriving lower-dimensional models that retain essential system characteristics. These techniques are crucial for the controller design of complex systems while…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-18 Behrad Samari , Henrik Sandberg , Karl H. Johansson , Abolfazl Lavaei

Obtaining predictive low-order models is a central challenge in fluid dynamics. Data-driven frameworks have been widely used to obtain low-order models of aerodynamic systems; yet, resulting models tend to yield predictions that grow…

The accuracy of simulation-based forecasting in chaotic systems is heavily dependent on high-quality estimates of the system state at the time the forecast is initialized. Data assimilation methods are used to infer these initial conditions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Michael McCabe , Jed Brown

Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) describe phenomena ranging from turbulence and epidemics to quantum mechanics and financial markets. Despite recent advances in computational science, solving such PDEs for real-world applications…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Lothar Heimbach , Sebastian Kaltenbach , Petr Karnakov , Francis J. Alexander , Petros Koumoutsakos

We develop a moment equation closure minimization method for the inexpensive approximation of the steady state statistical structure of nonlinear systems whose potential functions have bimodal shapes and which are subjected to correlated…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-10-08 Han Kyul Joo , Themistoklis P. Sapsis