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An important aspect of the performance of algorithms that predict individualized treatment effects (ITE) is moderate calibration, i.e., the average treatment effect among individuals with predicted treatment effect of z being equal to z.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Mohsen Sadatsafavi , Jeroen Hoogland , Thomas P. A. Debray , John Petkau

Selecting causal inference models for estimating individualized treatment effects (ITE) from observational data presents a unique challenge since the counterfactual outcomes are never observed. The problem is challenged further in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-15 Trent Kyono , Ioana Bica , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

Background: Randomized controlled trials are often used to inform policy and practice for broad populations. The average treatment effect (ATE) for a target population, however, may be different from the ATE observed in a trial if there are…

Causal effect estimation has been widely used in marketing optimization. The framework of an uplift model followed by a constrained optimization algorithm is popular in practice. To enhance performance in the online environment, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-30 Baining Chen , Yiming Zhang , Yuqiao Han , Ruyue Zhang , Ruihuan Du , Zhishuo Zhou , Zhengdan Zhu , Xun Liu , Jiecheng Guo

Causal inference problems have remained an important research topic over the past several decades due to their general applicability in assessing a treatment effect in many different real-world settings. In this paper, we propose two…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-17 Jingyue Huang , Changbao Wu , Leilei Zeng

Causal evidence is needed to act and it is often enough for the evidence to point towards a direction of the effect of an action. For example, policymakers might be interested in estimating the effect of slightly increasing taxes on private…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-11 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Bin Yu

Current imitation learning techniques are too restrictive because they require the agent and expert to share the same action space. However, oftentimes agents that act differently from the expert can solve the task just as good. For…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-18 Nir Baram , Shie Mannor

Estimating the conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is very important in causal inference and has a wide range of applications across many fields. In the estimation process of CATE, the unconfoundedness assumption is typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Pengfei Shi , Wei Zhong , Xinyu Zhang , Ningtao Wang , Xing Fu , Weiqiang Wang , Yin Jin

Learning the Individual Treatment Effect (ITE) is essential for personalized decision-making, yet causal inference has traditionally focused on aggregated treatment effects. While integrating conformal prediction with causal inference can…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-23 Chenyin Gao , Peter B. Gilbert , Larry Han

Promotions play a crucial role in e-commerce platforms, and various cost structures are employed to drive user engagement. This paper focuses on promotions with response-dependent costs, where expenses are incurred only when a purchase is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-11 Hugo Manuel Proença , Felipe Moraes

The weighted average treatment effect (WATE) is a causal measure for the comparison of interventions in a specific target population, which may be different from the population where data are sampled from. For instance, when the goal is to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-17 Yebin Tao , Haoda Fu

Many recent methods for unsupervised or self-supervised representation learning train feature extractors by maximizing an estimate of the mutual information (MI) between different views of the data. This comes with several immediate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-24 Michael Tschannen , Josip Djolonga , Paul K. Rubenstein , Sylvain Gelly , Mario Lucic

We revisit the classical causal inference problem of estimating the average treatment effect in the presence of fully observed confounding variables using two-stage semiparametric methods. In existing theoretical studies of methods such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-23 Steve Yadlowsky

We study the benign overfitting theory in the prediction of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE), with linear regression models. As the development of machine learning for causal inference, a wide range of large-scale models for…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-17 Masahiro Kato , Masaaki Imaizumi

When considering the effect a treatment will cause in a population of interest, we often look to evidence from randomized controlled trials. In settings where multiple trials on a treatment are available, we may wish to synthesize the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-08 Nicole Schnitzler , Eloise Kaizar

Multiple instance learning (MIL) is concerned with learning from sets (bags) of objects (instances), where the individual instance labels are ambiguous. In this setting, supervised learning cannot be applied directly. Often, specialized MIL…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-12-04 Veronika Cheplygina , David M. J. Tax , Marco Loog

This paper studies treatment effect models in which individuals are classified into unobserved groups based on heterogeneous treatment rules. Using a finite mixture approach, we propose a marginal treatment effect (MTE) framework in which…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-05-24 Tadao Hoshino , Takahide Yanagi

Organizations are increasingly adopting machine learning (ML) for personnel assessment. However, concerns exist about fairness in designing and implementing ML assessments. Supervised ML models are trained to model patterns in data, meaning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-30 Louis Hickman , Jason Kuruzovich , Vincent Ng , Kofi Arhin , Danielle Wilson

This paper establishes sufficient conditions for the identification of the marginal treatment effects with multivalued treatments. Our model is based on a multinomial choice model with utility maximization. Our MTE generalizes the MTE…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-30 Toshiki Tsuda

Two-phase sampling is a simple and cost-effective estimation strategy in survey sampling and is widely used in practice. Because the phase-2 sampling probability typically depends on low-cost variables collected at phase 1, naive estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-11 Kazuharu Harada , Masataka Taguri