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We present a model-agnostic algorithm for generating post-hoc explanations and uncertainty intervals for a machine learning model when only a static sample of inputs and outputs from the model is available, rather than direct access to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-27 Surin Ahn , Justin Grana , Yafet Tamene , Kristian Holsheimer

Using attention weights to identify information that is important for models' decision-making is a popular approach to interpret attention-based neural networks. This is commonly realized in practice through the generation of a heat-map for…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2021-06-01 Tian Shi , Xuchao Zhang , Ping Wang , Chandan K. Reddy

Concept-based explainability methods use human-understandable intermediaries to produce explanations for machine learning models. These methods assume concept predictions can help understand a model's internal reasoning. In this work, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-26 Naveen Raman , Mateo Espinosa Zarlenga , Juyeon Heo , Mateja Jamnik

Supervised machine learning models boast remarkable predictive capabilities. But can you trust your model? Will it work in deployment? What else can it tell you about the world? We want models to be not only good, but interpretable. And yet…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-03-07 Zachary C. Lipton

Large language models (LLMs) often generate fluent but factually incorrect outputs, known as hallucinations, which undermine their reliability in real-world applications. While uncertainty estimation has emerged as a promising strategy for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Pei-Fu Guo , Yun-Da Tsai , Shou-De Lin

Sensitivity forecasts inform the design of experiments and the direction of theoretical efforts. To arrive at representative results, Bayesian forecasts should marginalize their conclusions over uncertain parameters and noise realizations…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-05-24 T. Gessey-Jones , W. J. Handley

The explanations of large language models have recently been shown to be sensitive to the randomness used for their training, creating a need to characterize this sensitivity. In this paper, we propose a characterization that questions the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-18 Jeremie Bogaert , Francois-Xavier Standaert

We consider Bayesian optimization of an expensive-to-evaluate black-box objective function, where we also have access to cheaper approximations of the objective. In general, such approximations arise in applications such as reinforcement…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-16 Matthias Poloczek , Jialei Wang , Peter I. Frazier

Recent studies have shown that ensemble approaches could not only improve accuracy and but also estimate model uncertainty in deep learning. However, it requires a large number of parameters according to the increase of ensemble models for…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-05-25 Hong Joo Lee , Seong Tae Kim , Hakmin Lee , Nassir Navab , Yong Man Ro

We explore Bayesian reasoning as a means to quantify uncertainty in neural networks for question answering. Starting with a multilayer perceptron on the Iris dataset, we show how posterior inference conveys confidence in predictions. We…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-22 Riccardo Di Sipio

Interpreting the inner workings of deep learning models is crucial for establishing trust and ensuring model safety. Concept-based explanations have emerged as a superior approach that is more interpretable than feature attribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-17 Mara Graziani , Laura O' Mahony , An-Phi Nguyen , Henning Müller , Vincent Andrearczyk

Despite the growing body of work in interpretable machine learning, it remains unclear how to evaluate different explainability methods without resorting to qualitative assessment and user-studies. While interpretability is an inherently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-16 An-phi Nguyen , María Rodríguez Martínez

Bayesian inference is a popular approach to calibrating uncertainties, but it can underpredict such uncertainties when model misspecification is present, impacting its reliability to inform decision making. Recently, the statistics and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Rebekah White , Rileigh Bandy , Teresa Portone

Although a recent shift has been made in the field of predictive process monitoring to use models from the explainable artificial intelligence field, the evaluation still occurs mainly through performance-based metrics, thus not accounting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Alexander Stevens , Johannes De Smedt

In recent years, there has been an increased need for the use of active systems - systems required to act automatically based on events, or changes in the environment. Such systems span many areas, from active databases to applications that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-09 Segev Wasserkrug , Avigdor Gal , Opher Etzion

In science and medicine, model interpretations may be reported as discoveries of natural phenomena or used to guide patient treatments. In such high-stakes tasks, false discoveries may lead investigators astray. These applications would…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-18 Collin Burns , Jesse Thomason , Wesley Tansey

With the wide adoption of machine learning techniques, requirements have evolved beyond sheer high performance, often requiring models to be trustworthy. A common approach to increase the trustworthiness of such systems is to allow them to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-16 Andrea Pugnana , Carlos Mougan , Dan Saattrup Nielsen

Linear approximations to the decision boundary of a complex model have become one of the most popular tools for interpreting predictions. In this paper, we study such linear explanations produced either post-hoc by a few recent methods or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-01-31 Maruan Al-Shedivat , Avinava Dubey , Eric P. Xing

Model inadequacy and measurement uncertainty are two of the most confounding aspects of inference and prediction in quantitative sciences. The process of scientific inference (the inverse problem) and prediction (the forward problem)…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-11-30 Amir Shahmoradi

We present an interpretable companion model for any pre-trained black-box classifiers. The idea is that for any input, a user can decide to either receive a prediction from the black-box model, with high accuracy but no explanations, or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-12 Danqing Pan , Tong Wang , Satoshi Hara