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Intelligent agents must be able to articulate its own uncertainty. In this work, we show that pre-trained sequence models are naturally capable of probabilistic reasoning over exchangeable data points -- forming informed beliefs and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-02 Naimeng Ye , Hongseok Namkoong

Explanations of model behavior are commonly evaluated via proxy properties weakly tied to the purposes explanations serve in practice. We contribute a decision theoretic framework that treats explanations as information signals valued by…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Ziyang Guo , Berk Ustun , Jessica Hullman

We propose a novel iterative algorithm for estimating a deterministic but unknown parameter vector in the presence of model uncertainties. This iterative algorithm is based on a system model where an overall noise term describes both, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-27 Oliver Lang , Michael Lunglmayr , Mario Huemer

In order to trust the predictions of a machine learning algorithm, it is necessary to understand the factors that contribute to those predictions. In the case of probabilistic and uncertainty-aware models, it is necessary to understand not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-19 Danny Wood , Theodore Papamarkou , Matt Benatan , Richard Allmendinger

Explanations for machine learning models can be hard to interpret or be wrong. Combining an explanation method with an uncertainty estimation method produces explanation uncertainty. Evaluating explanation uncertainty is difficult. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-27 Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Mihir Mulye

Current machine learning models are evaluated through behavioral snapshots, with benchmark accuracies, win rates and outcome-based metrics. Model explanations and evaluations, however, are fundamentally intertwined: understanding why a…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Isabelle Lee , Emmy Liu , Cathy Jiao , Brihi Joshi , Dani Yogatama , Fazl Barez , Michael Saxon

Accurately estimating uncertainties in neural network predictions is of great importance in building trusted DNNs-based models, and there is an increasing interest in providing accurate uncertainty estimation on many tasks, such as security…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Yukun Ding , Jinglan Liu , Jinjun Xiong , Yiyu Shi

Understanding why a model made a certain prediction is crucial in many data science fields. Interpretable predictions engender appropriate trust and provide insight into how the model may be improved. However, with large modern datasets the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-12-09 Scott Lundberg , Su-In Lee

Predictions and forecasts of machine learning models should take the form of probability distributions, aiming to increase the quantity of information communicated to end users. Although applications of probabilistic prediction and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-19 Hristos Tyralis , Georgia Papacharalampous

Decisions in organizations are about evaluating alternatives and choosing the one that would best serve organizational goals. To the extent that the evaluation of alternatives could be formulated as a predictive task with appropriate…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2022-06-30 Charles Wan , Rodrigo Belo , Leid Zejnilović

As deep neural networks (DNNs) get adopted in an ever-increasing number of applications, explainability has emerged as a crucial desideratum for these models. In many real-world tasks, one of the principal reasons for requiring…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-07-03 Vedant Nanda , Till Speicher , John P. Dickerson , Krishna P. Gummadi , Muhammad Bilal Zafar

The interest in complex deep neural networks for computer vision applications is increasing. This leads to the need for improving the interpretable capabilities of these models. Recent explanation methods present visualizations of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-24 Dan Valle , Tiago Pimentel , Adriano Veloso

*Concept-based explanations* offer a promising approach for explaining the predictions of deep neural networks in terms of high-level, human-understandable concepts. However, existing methods either do not establish a causal connection…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Ronaldo Canizales , Divya Gopinath , Corina Păsăreanu , Ravi Mangal

As machine learning models are increasingly considered for high-stakes domains, effective explanation methods are crucial to ensure that their prediction strategies are transparent to the user. Over the years, numerous metrics have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-14 Johannes Maeß , Grégoire Montavon , Shinichi Nakajima , Klaus-Robert Müller , Thomas Schnake

The estimation of the amount of uncertainty featured by predictive machine learning models has acquired a great momentum in recent years. Uncertainty estimation provides the user with augmented information about the model's confidence in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-31 Ibai Laña , Ignacio , Olabarrieta , Javier Del Ser

Explainability is motivated by the lack of transparency of black-box Machine Learning approaches, which do not foster trust and acceptance of Machine Learning algorithms. This also happens in the Predictive Process Monitoring field, where…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-25 Williams Rizzi , Marco Comuzzi , Chiara Di Francescomarino , Chiara Ghidini , Suhwan Lee , Fabrizio Maria Maggi , Alexander Nolte

Machine learning models that first learn a representation of a domain in terms of human-understandable concepts, then use it to make predictions, have been proposed to facilitate interpretation and interaction with models trained on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-08 Isaac Lage , Finale Doshi-Velez

Modern deterministic retrieval pipelines prioritize achieving state-of-the-art performance but often lack interpretability in decision-making. These models face challenges in assessing uncertainty, leading to overconfident predictions. To…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-02-06 EuiYul Song , Philhoon Oh , Sangryul Kim , James Thorne

Understanding sources of a model's uncertainty regarding its predictions is crucial for effective human-AI collaboration. Prior work proposes using numerical uncertainty or hedges ("I'm not sure, but ..."), which do not explain uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Jingyi Sun , Greta Warren , Irina Shklovski , Isabelle Augenstein

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) predict through human-interpretable concepts, but they typically output point concept probabilities that conflate epistemic uncertainty (reducible model underspecification) with aleatoric uncertainty…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Tanmoy Mukherjee , Thomas Bailleux , Pierre Marquis , Zied Bouraoui
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