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As autonomous systems are increasingly deployed in open and uncertain settings, there is a growing need for trustworthy world models that can reliably predict future high-dimensional observations. The learned latent representations in world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Jordan Peper , Zhenjiang Mao , Yuang Geng , Siyuan Pan , Ivan Ruchkin

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) are an emerging technique under the umbrella of interpretability of machine learning (ML) models. They provide ``what if'' feedback of the form ``if an input datapoint were $x'$ instead of $x$, then an ML…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-16 Sahil Verma , John Dickerson , Keegan Hines

Counterfactual reasoning is crucial for robust video understanding but remains underexplored in existing multimodal benchmarks. In this paper, we introduce \textbf{COVER} (\textbf{\underline{CO}}unterfactual…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Qiji Zhou , Yifan Gong , Guangsheng Bao , Hongjie Qiu , Jinqiang Li , Xiangrong Zhu , Huajian Zhang , Yue Zhang

Counterfactual explanation is an important Explainable AI technique to explain machine learning predictions. Despite being studied actively, existing optimization-based methods often assume that the underlying machine-learning model is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-01 Wenzhuo Yang , Jia Li , Caiming Xiong , Steven C. H. Hoi

Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C have been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, determination of liability, and policy analysis. We present a method of revaluating counterfactuals when the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Alexander Balke , Judea Pearl

Achieving reliable and efficient planning in complex driving environments requires a model that can reason over the scene's geometry, appearance, and dynamics. We present UniDWM, a unified driving world model that advances autonomous…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Shuai Liu , Siheng Ren , Xiaoyao Zhu , Quanmin Liang , Zefeng Li , Qiang Li , Xin Hu , Kai Huang

Being able to reason about how one's behaviour can affect the behaviour of others is a core skill required of intelligent driving agents. Despite this, the state of the art struggles to meet the need of agents to discover causal links…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-03-07 Rhys Howard , Lars Kunze

Counterfactual prediction methods are required when a model will be deployed in a setting where treatment policies differ from the setting where the model was developed, or when a model provides predictions under hypothetical interventions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Christopher B. Boyer , Issa J. Dahabreh , Jon A. Steingrimsson

In this paper, we address the challenge of performing counterfactual inference with observational data via Bayesian nonparametric regression adjustment, with a focus on high-dimensional settings featuring multiple actions and multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Alberto Caron , Gianluca Baio , Ioanna Manolopoulou

World Action Models (WAMs) have emerged as a promising alternative to Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models for embodied control because they explicitly model how visual observations may evolve under action. Most existing WAMs follow an…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Tianyuan Yuan , Zibin Dong , Yicheng Liu , Hang Zhao

The Driving World Model (DWM), which focuses on predicting scene evolution during the driving process, has emerged as a promising paradigm in the pursuit of autonomous driving (AD). DWMs enable AD systems to better perceive, understand, and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Sifan Tu , Xin Zhou , Dingkang Liang , Xingyu Jiang , Yumeng Zhang , Xiaofan Li , Xiang Bai

Counterfactual statements, which describe events that did not or cannot take place, are beneficial to numerous NLP applications. Hence, we consider the problem of counterfactual detection (CFD) and seek to enhance the CFD models. Previous…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-01 Thong Nguyen , Truc-My Nguyen

Current pre-trained language models have enabled remarkable improvements in downstream tasks, but it remains difficult to distinguish effects of statistical correlation from more systematic logical reasoning grounded on understanding of the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-12-08 Jiaxuan Li , Lang Yu , Allyson Ettinger

Precise estimation of Crash Modification Factors (CMFs) is central to evaluating the effectiveness of various road safety treatments and prioritizing infrastructure investment accordingly. While customized study for each countermeasure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-16 Yanlin Qi , Jia Li , Michael Zhang

Forecasting faithful trajectories of multivariate time series from practical scopes is essential for reasonable decision-making. Recent methods majorly tailor generative conditional diffusion models to estimate the target temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-04 Siyang Li , Yize Chen , Hui Xiong

We provide an optimization-based framework to perform counterfactual analysis in a dynamic model with hidden states. Our framework is grounded in the ``abduction, action, and prediction'' approach to answer counterfactual queries and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-09 Martin Haugh , Raghav Singal

Decision-makers are faced with the challenge of estimating what is likely to happen when they take an action. For instance, if I choose not to treat this patient, are they likely to die? Practitioners commonly use supervised learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-02 Peter Schulam , Suchi Saria

Causal world models are systems that can answer counterfactual questions about an environment of interest, i.e. predict how it would have evolved if an arbitrary subset of events had been realized differently. It requires understanding the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Gaël Gendron , Jože M. Rožanec , Michael Witbrock , Gillian Dobbie

Accurate modeling of opinion dynamics has the potential to help us understand polarization and what makes effective political discourse possible or impossible. Here, we use physics-based methods to model the evolution of political opinions…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-10-07 David Sabin-Miller , Daniel M. Abrams

Learning from visual data opens the potential to accrue a large range of manipulation behaviors by leveraging human demonstrations without specifying each of them mathematically, but rather through natural task specification. In this paper,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-11-16 Haoyu Xiong , Quanzhou Li , Yun-Chun Chen , Homanga Bharadhwaj , Samarth Sinha , Animesh Garg
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