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Computation of the marginal likelihood from a simulated posterior distribution is central to Bayesian model selection but is computationally difficult. I argue that the marginal likelihood can be reliably computed from a posterior sample by…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2010-06-24 Martin D. Weinberg

The mean-field limit of a Markovian model describing the interaction of several classes of permanent connections in a network is analyzed. Each of the connections has a self-adaptive behavior in that its transmission rate along its route…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-12-15 Carl Graham , Philippe Robert

We consider a finite population processor-sharing (PS) queue, with Markovian arrivals and an exponential server. Such a queue can model an interactive computer system consisting of a bank of terminals in series with a central processing…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-12 Qiang Zhen , Johan S. H. van Leeuwaarden , Charles Knessl

We consider Markovian multiclass multi-pool networks with heterogeneous server pools, each consisting of many statistically identical parallel servers, where the bipartite graph of customer classes and server pools forms a tree. Customers…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-20 Ari Arapostathis , Guodong Pang

A nonlinear Markov chain is a discrete time stochastic process whose transitions depend on both the current state and the current distribution of the process. The nonlinear Markov chain over a infinite state space can be identified by a…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2021-08-11 Farrukh Mukhamedov , Otabek Khakimov , Ahmad Fadillah Embong

We consider the problem of computing the joint distribution of order statistics of stochastically independent random variables in one- and two-group models. While recursive formulas for evaluating the joint cumulative distribution function…

Computation · Statistics 2018-12-24 Jonathan von Schroeder , Thorsten Dickhaus

Graphical models are widely used to make inferences concerning interplay in multivariate systems. In many applications, data are collected from multiple related but nonidentical units whose underlying networks may differ but are likely to…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-04 Chris J. Oates , Jim Korkola , Joe W. Gray , Sach Mukherjee

We provide probabilistic and computational results on Markovian multivariate Hawkes processes and induced population processes. By applying the Markov property, we characterize in closed form a joint transform, bijective to the probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-08 R. S. Karim , R. J. A. Laeven , M , M. Mandjes

The estimation of absorption time distributions of Markov jump processes is an important task in various branches of statistics and applied probability. While the time-homogeneous case is classic, the time-inhomogeneous case has recently…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-26 Jamaal Ahmad , Martin Bladt , Mogens Bladt

In this paper, we establish a probabilistic representation for two integration by parts formulas, one being of Bismut-Elworthy-Li's type, for the marginal law of a one-dimensional diffusion process killed at a given level. These formulas…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-08-14 Noufel Frikha , Arturo Kohatsu-Higa , Libo Li

Joint models of longitudinal and event-time data have been extensively studied and applied in many different fields. Estimation of joint models is challenging, most present procedures are computational expensive and have a strict…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-05 Yanqiao Zheng , Xiaobing Zhao , Xiaoqi Zhang

This work shows how exponential concentration inequalities for additive functionals of stochastic processes over a finite time interval can be derived from concentration inequalities for martingales. The approach is entirely probabilistic…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-14 Bob Pepin

Questions are posed regarding the influence that the column sums of the transition probabilities of a stochastic matrix (with row sums all one) have on the stationary distribution, the mean first passage times and the Kemeny constant of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-05 Jeffrey J. Hunter

We establish a systematic framework of unbiased quantum sampling and estimation protocols for the classical Gibbs expectation. This framework generalizes existing approaches to the partition function estimation and has broader applications…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-02 Xinmiao Li , Jin-Peng Liu

We study a discrete time multitype branching random walk on a finite space with finite set of types. Particles follow a Markov chain on the spatial space whereas offspring distributions are given by a random field that is fixed throughout…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-30 Onur Gün , Wolfgang König , Ozren Sekulović

Complex continuous or mixed joint distributions (e.g., P(Y | z_1, z_2, ..., z_N)) generally lack closed-form solutions, often necessitating approximations such as MCMC. This paper proposes Indeterminate Probability Theory (IPT), which makes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Tao Yang , Chuang Liu , Xiaofeng Ma , Weijia Lu , Ning Wu , Bingyang Li , Zhifei Yang , Peng Liu , Lin Sun , Xiaodong Zhang , Can Zhang

We study the optimization of the expected long-term reward in finite partially observable Markov decision processes over the set of stationary stochastic policies. In the case of deterministic observations, also known as state aggregation,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-11-18 Mareike Dressler , Marina Garrote-López , Guido Montúfar , Johannes Müller , Kemal Rose

We consider a semiparametric generalized linear model and study estimation of both marginal and quantile effects in this model. We propose an approximate maximum likelihood estimator, and rigorously establish the consistency, the asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-06 Seong-ho Lee , Yanyuan Ma , Elvezio Ronchetti

In traditional priority queues, we assume that every customer upon arrival has a fixed, class-dependent priority, and that a customer may not commence service if a customer with a higher priority is present in the queue. However, in…

We consider the problem of approximating the stationary distribution of an ergodic Markov chain given a set of sampled transitions. Classical simulation-based approaches assume access to the underlying process so that trajectories of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-03 Junfeng Wen , Bo Dai , Lihong Li , Dale Schuurmans