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Clinical prediction models provide a prediction (e.g., estimated risk) for each individual, typically expressed as a point estimate derived from a deterministic function such as a logistic regression equation. Such 'plug-in' predictions…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Mohsen Sadatsafavi , Richard D. Riley

We study Bayesian approaches to causal inference via propensity score regression. Much of the Bayesian literature on propensity score methods have relied on approaches that cannot be viewed as fully Bayesian in the context of conventional…

We develop a Bayesian approach for selecting the model which is the most supported by the data within a class of marginal models for categorical variables formulated through equality and/or inequality constraints on generalised logits…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-21 Francesco Bartolucci , Luisa Scaccia , Alessio Farcomeni

In this paper, we expand the methodology presented in Mertens et. al (2020, Biometrical Journal) to the study of life-time (survival) outcome which is subject to censoring and when imputation is used to account for missing values. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-06 Bart J. A. Mertens

While there are many well-developed data science methods for classification and regression, there are relatively few methods for working with right-censored data. Here, we present "survival stacking": a method for casting survival analysis…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-29 Erin Craig , Chenyang Zhong , Robert Tibshirani

Background: The hazard ratio of the Cox proportional hazards model is widely used in randomized controlled trials to assess treatment effects. However, two properties of the hazard ratio including the non-collapsibility and built-in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-17 Helen Bian , Menglan Pang , Guanbo Wang , Zihang Lu

We present a new approach to semiparametric inference using corrected posterior distributions. The method allows us to leverage the adaptivity, regularization and predictive power of nonparametric Bayesian procedures to estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-21 Andrew Yiu , Edwin Fong , Chris Holmes , Judith Rousseau

Most prediction models that are used in medical research fail to accurately predict health outcomes due to methodological limitations. Using routinely collected patient data, we explore the use of a Cox proportional hazard (PH) model within…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-19 John Mbotwa , Marc de Kamps , Paul D. Baxter , Mark S. Gilthorpe

The Cox proportional hazards model is a canonical method in survival analysis for prediction of the life expectancy of a patient given clinical or genetic covariates -- it is a linear model in its original form. In recent years, several…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-23 Xuelin Yang , Louis Abraham , Sejin Kim , Petr Smirnov , Feng Ruan , Benjamin Haibe-Kains , Robert Tibshirani

In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-12-23 Dimitris Korobilis , Kenichi Shimizu

We propose a new family of error distributions for model-based quantile regression, which is constructed through a structured mixture of normal distributions. The construction enables fixing specific percentiles of the distribution while,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-10 Yifei Yan , Athanasios Kottas

We study Bayesian inference methods for solving linear inverse problems, focusing on hierarchical formulations where the prior or the likelihood function depend on unspecified hyperparameters. In practice, these hyperparameters are often…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-08-01 Qingping Zhou , Wenqing Liu , Jinglai Li , Youssef M. Marzouk

We use rescaled Gaussian processes as prior models for functional parameters in nonparametric statistical models. We show how the rate of contraction of the posterior distributions depends on the scaling factor. In particular, we exhibit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Aad van der Vaart , Harry van Zanten

The Cox process is a stochastic process which generalises the Poisson process by letting the underlying intensity function itself be a stochastic process. In this paper we present a fast Bayesian inference scheme for the permanental…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-07 Christian J. Walder , Adrian N. Bishop

The Poisson distribution arises naturally when dealing with data involving counts, and it has found many applications in inverse problems and imaging. In this work, we develop an approximate Bayesian inference technique based on expectation…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-09-04 Chen Zhang , Simon Arridge , Bangti Jin

The mainstream theory of hypothesis testing in high-dimensional regression typically assumes the underlying true model is a low-dimensional linear regression model, yet the Box-Cox transformation is a regression technique commonly used to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-22 He Zhou , Hui Zou

In heterogeneous cohorts and those where censoring by non-primary risks is informative many conventional survival analysis methods are not applicable; the proportional hazards assumption is usually violated at population level and the…

A central challenge in statistical inference is the presence of confounding variables that may distort observed associations between treatment and outcome. Conventional "causal" methods, grounded in assumptions such as ignorability, exclude…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Ellis Scharfenaker , Duncan K. Foley

For sparse high-dimensional regression problems, Cox and Battey [1, 9] emphasised the need for confidence sets of models: an enumeration of those small sets of variables that fit the data equivalently well in a suitable statistical sense.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-10 R. M. Lewis , H. S. Battey

Noninformative priors constructed for estimation purposes are usually not appropriate for model selection and testing. The methodology of integral priors was developed to get prior distributions for Bayesian model selection when comparing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-05 Diego Salmerón , Juan Antonio Cano , Christian P. Robert