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This paper studies the identification, estimation, and inference of long-term (binary) treatment effect parameters when balanced panel data is not available, or consists of only a subset of the available data. We develop a new estimator:…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-04 Christophe Bellégo , David Benatia , Vincent Dortet-Bernardet

This study proposes a method to identify treatment effects without exclusion restrictions in randomized experiments with noncompliance. Exploiting a baseline survey commonly available in randomized experiments, I decompose the…

General Economics · Economics 2021-06-03 Masayuki Sawada

Negative control is a strategy for learning the causal relationship between treatment and outcome in the presence of unmeasured confounding. The treatment effect can nonetheless be identified if two auxiliary variables are available: a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-24 Rahul Singh

We consider estimation and inference of the effects of a policy in the absence of an untreated or control group. We obtain unbiased estimators of individual (heterogeneous) treatment effects and a consistent and asymptotically normal…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-13 Irene Botosaru , Raffaella Giacomini , Martin Weidner

In causal estimation problems, the parameter of interest is often only partially identified, implying that the parameter cannot be recovered exactly, even with infinite data. Here, we study Bayesian inference for partially identified…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-26 Jiajing Zheng , Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks

This paper examines methods of causal inference based on groupwise matching when we observe multiple large groups of individuals over several periods. We formulate causal inference validity through a generalized matching condition,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-24 Ratzanyel Rincón , Kyungchul Song

Given only data generated by a standard confounding graph with unobserved confounder, the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is not identifiable. To estimate the ATE, a practitioner must then either (a) collect deconfounded data;(b) run a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-09 Kyra Gan , Andrew A. Li , Zachary C. Lipton , Sridhar Tayur

This paper considers the problem of inferring the causal effect of a variable $Z$ on a dependently censored survival time $T$. We allow for unobserved confounding variables, such that the error term of the regression model for $T$ is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-02 Gilles Crommen , Jad Beyhum , Ingrid Van Keilegom

The synthetic control (SC) method is a popular approach for estimating treatment effects from observational panel data. It rests on a crucial assumption that we can write the treated unit as a linear combination of the untreated units. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-27 Achille Nazaret , Claudia Shi , David M. Blei

The proximal causal inference framework enables the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging two disjoint sets of observed strong proxies: negative control treatments and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Peter B. Gilbert , Andrea Rotnitzky

Reliable treatment effect estimation from observational data depends on the availability of all confounding information. While much work has targeted treatment effect estimation from observational data, there is relatively little work in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-18 Shirly Wang , Seung Eun Yi , Shalmali Joshi , Marzyeh Ghassemi

Nonseparable panel models are important in a variety of economic settings, including discrete choice. This paper gives identification and estimation results for nonseparable models under time homogeneity conditions that are like "time is…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-08 Victor Chernozhukov , Ivan Fernandez-Val , Jinyong Hahn , Whitney Newey

Many proposals for the identification of causal effects require an instrumental variable that satisfies strong, untestable unconfoundedness and exclusion restriction assumptions. In this paper, we show how one can potentially identify…

The present paper proposes a new treatment effects estimator that is valid when the number of time periods is small, and the parallel trends condition holds conditional on covariates and unobserved heterogeneity in the form of interactive…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-16 Nicholas Brown , Kyle Butts , Joakim Westerlund

Over the years, there has been growing interest in using Machine Learning techniques for biomedical data processing. When tackling these tasks, one needs to bear in mind that biomedical data depends on a variety of characteristics, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-05 Elisa Ferrari , Alessandra Retico , Davide Bacciu

Empirical researchers are often interested in not only whether a treatment affects an outcome of interest, but also how the treatment effect arises. Causal mediation analysis provides a formal framework to identify causal mechanisms through…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-01 Bora Kim

Difference-in-Differences (DiD) and Synthetic Control (SC) are widely used methods for causal inference in panel data, each with distinct strengths and limitations. We propose a novel method for short-panel causal inference that integrates…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-26 Yixiao Sun , Haitian Xie , Yuhang Zhang

Unmeasured confounding is a threat to causal inference in observational studies. In recent years, use of negative controls to mitigate unmeasured confounding has gained increasing recognition and popularity. Negative controls have a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-05 Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Jennifer C. Nelson , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

A new meta-algorithm for estimating the conditional average treatment effects is proposed in the paper. The main idea underlying the algorithm is to consider a new dataset consisting of feature vectors produced by means of concatenation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-10 Lev V. Utkin , Mikhail V. Kots , Viacheslav S. Chukanov

Researchers are often interested in learning not only the effect of treatments on outcomes, but also the pathways through which these effects operate. A mediator is a variable that is affected by treatment and subsequently affects outcome.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-22 Jeremiah Jones , Ashkan Ertefaie , Robert L. Strawderman