Related papers: Stochastic volatility models with skewness selecti…
We consider an asset whose risk-neutral dynamics are described by a general class of local-stochastic volatility models and derive a family of asymptotic expansions for European-style option prices and implied volatilities. Our implied…
In this short paper, we study the simulation of a large system of stochastic processes subject to a common driving noise and fast mean-reverting stochastic volatilities. This model may be used to describe the firm values of a large pool of…
This paper presents two stochastic model predictive control methods for linear time-invariant systems subject to unbounded additive uncertainties. The new methods are developed by formulating the chance constraints into deterministic form,…
We consider stochastic control systems affected by a fast mean reverting volatility $Y(t)$ driven by a pure jump L\'evy process. Motivated by a large literature on financial models, we assume that $Y(t)$ evolves at a faster time scale…
Rolling origin forecast instability refers to variability in forecasts for a specific period induced by updating the forecast when new data points become available. Recently, an extension to the N-BEATS model for univariate time series…
There are several approaches to modeling and forecasting time series as applied to prices of commodities and financial assets. One of the approaches is to model the price as a non-stationary time series process with heteroscedastic…
Low-fidelity analytical models of turbine wakes have traditionally been used for wind farm planning, performance evaluation, and demonstrating the utility of advanced control algorithms in increasing the annual energy production. In…
We explore a link between stochastic volatility (SV) and path-dependent volatility (PDV) models. Using assumed density filtering, we map a given SV model into a corresponding PDV representation. The resulting specification is lightweight,…
It is common for long financial time series to exhibit gradual change in the unconditional volatility. We propose a new model that captures this type of nonstationarity in a parsimonious way. The model augments the volatility equation of a…
This paper studies the dynamic programming principle for general convex stochastic optimization problems introduced by Rockafellar and Wets in [30]. We extend the applicability of the theory by relaxing compactness and boundedness…
The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure…
This paper explores stochastic modeling approaches to elucidate the intricate dynamics of stock prices and volatility in financial markets. Beginning with an overview of Brownian motion and its historical significance in finance, we delve…
Based on a criterion of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model has been obtained with the volatility process driven by fractional noise. Depending on whether the stochasticity…
The sampling efficiency of MCMC methods in Bayesian inference for stochastic volatility (SV) models is known to highly depend on the actual parameter values, and the effectiveness of samplers based on different parameterizations varies…
We develop a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model with multivariate stochastic volatility that is capable of handling vast dimensional information sets. Three features are introduced to permit reliable estimation of the model. First,…
This paper focuses on a dynamic multi-asset mean-variance portfolio selection problem under model uncertainty. We develop a continuous time framework for taking into account ambiguity aversion about both expected return rates and…
Stochastic volatility models describe stock returns $r_t$ as driven by an unobserved process capturing the random dynamics of volatility $v_t$. The present paper quantifies how much information about volatility $v_t$ and future stock…
A new modelling approach that directly prescribes dynamics to the term structure of VIX futures is proposed in this paper. The approach is motivated by the tractability enjoyed by models that directly prescribe dynamics to the VIX,…
In this paper, we focus on the estimation of historical volatility of asset prices from high-frequency data. Stochastic volatility models pose a major statistical challenge: since in reality historical volatility is not observable, its…
The leverage effect refers to the well-established relationship between returns and volatility. When returns fall, volatility increases. We examine the role of the leverage effect with regards to generating density forecasts of equity…