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We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in-sample analysis and out-ofsample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In…
Rough volatility models are continuous time stochastic volatility models where the volatility process is driven by a fractional Brownian motion with the Hurst parameter smaller than half, and have attracted much attention since a seminal…
The volatility of financial instruments is rarely constant, and usually varies over time. This creates a phenomenon called volatility clustering, where large price movements on one day are followed by similarly large movements on successive…
This paper presents a continuous-time optimal control framework for the generation of reference trajectories in driving scenarios with uncertainty. A previous work presented a discrete-time stochastic generator for autonomous vehicles;…
For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…
We develop a dynamic factor stochastic volatility-in-mean (SVM) specification for vector autoregressions (VARs) that embeds an SVM component within a dynamic factor stochastic volatility structure. A small number of latent volatility…
Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) have proven successful in learning dynamical systems in terms of accurately recovering the observed trajectories. While different types of sparsity have been proposed to improve robustness, the…
We study continuous-time portfolio choice with nonlinear payoffs under smooth ambiguity and Bayesian learning. We develop a general framework for dynamic, non-concave asset allocation that accommodates nonlinear payoffs, broad utility…
We investigate a generalized stochastic model with the property known as mean reversion, that is, the tendency to relax towards a historical reference level. Besides this property, the dynamics is driven by multiplicative and additive…
Drifts of asset returns are notoriously difficult to model accurately and, yet, trading strategies obtained from portfolio optimization are very sensitive to them. To mitigate this well-known phenomenon we study robust growth-optimization…
This paper studies dynamic stochastic optimization problems parametrized by a random variable. Such problems arise in many applications in operations research and mathematical finance. We give sufficient conditions for the existence of…
First, we give an asymptotic expansion of short-dated at-the-money implied volatility that refines the preceding works and proves in particular that non-rough volatility models are inconsistent to a power law of volatility skew. Second, we…
The implied volatility skew has received relatively little attention in the literature on short-term asymptotics for financial models with jumps, despite its importance in model selection and calibration. We rectify this by providing…
We propose a neural network-based approach to calibrating stochastic volatility models, which combines the pioneering grid approach by Horvath et al. (2021) with the pointwise two-stage calibration of Bayer et al. (2018) and Liu et al.…
We study the robustness of system estimation to parametric perturbations in system dynamics and initial conditions. We define the problem of sensitivity-based parametric uncertainty quantification in dynamical system estimation. The main…
We propose a structural vector autoregressive model with a new and flexible specification of the volatility process which we call Sparse Heterogeneous Markov-Switching Heteroskedasticity. In this model, the conditional variance of each…
Stochastic Spatio-Temporal processes are prevalent across domains ranging from modeling of plasma to the turbulence in fluids to the wave function of quantum systems. This letter studies a measure-theoretic description of such systems by…
This paper describes a flexible and tractable bottom-up dynamic correlation modelling framework with a consistent stochastic recovery specification. The stochastic recovery specification only models the first two moments of the spot…
Correlations between asset returns are important in many financial applications. In recent years, multivariate volatility models have been used to describe the time-varying feature of the correlations. However, the curse of dimensionality…
The purpose of this research article is to discover how the econophysics analysis can complement the econometrics models in application to the risk management in the central banks and financial institutions, operating within the nonlinear…