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This paper is concerned with the problem of how to speed up computation for Gaussian process models trained on autocorrelated data. The Gaussian process model is a powerful tool commonly used in nonlinear regression applications. Standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-03 Ahmadreza Chokhachian , Matthias Katzfuss , Yu Ding

Causal discovery aims to infer causal relationships among variables from observational data, typically represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Most existing methods assume independent and identically distributed observations, an…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Alex Chen , Qing Zhou

Ensemble learning is a statistical paradigm built on the premise that many weak learners can perform exceptionally well when deployed collectively. The BART method of Chipman et al. (2010) is a prominent example of Bayesian ensemble…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-08 Veronika Rockova , Enakshi Saha

We present a novel prior for tree topology within Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) models. This approach quantifies the hypothetical loss in information and the loss due to complexity associated with choosing the wrong tree…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-30 F. Serafini , F. Leisen , C. Villa , K. Wilson

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful kernelized methods for non-parameteric regression used in many applications. However, their use is limited to a few thousand of training samples due to their cubic time complexity. In order to scale GPs…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-20 Manuel Schürch , Dario Azzimonti , Alessio Benavoli , Marco Zaffalon

Consider jointly Gaussian random variables whose conditional independence structure is specified by a graphical model. If we observe realizations of the variables, we can compute the covariance matrix, and it is well known that the support…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-28 Ashish Katiyar , Jessica Hoffmann , Constantine Caramanis

We introduce a new regression framework, Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN), which combines the structural properties of Bayesian neural networks with the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian processes. This model accommodates…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-10-21 Andrew Gordon Wilson , David A. Knowles , Zoubin Ghahramani

Exact Gaussian Process (GP) regression has O(N^3) runtime for data size N, making it intractable for large N. Many algorithms for improving GP scaling approximate the covariance with lower rank matrices. Other work has exploited structure…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-09-24 Elad Gilboa , Yunus Saatçi , John P. Cunningham

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used as distributions of random effects in linear mixed models, which are fit using the restricted likelihood or the closely-related Bayesian analysis. This article addresses two problems. First, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-04 Maitreyee Bose , James S. Hodges , Sudipto Banerjee

Vector autoregression has been widely used for modeling and analysis of multivariate time series data. In high-dimensional settings, model parameter regularization schemes inducing sparsity yield interpretable models and achieved good…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-08 Leo L. Duan , Zeyu Yuwen , George Michailidis , Zhengwu Zhang

We propose automated augmented conjugate inference, a new inference method for non-conjugate Gaussian processes (GP) models. Our method automatically constructs an auxiliary variable augmentation that renders the GP model conditionally…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Théo Galy-Fajou , Florian Wenzel , Manfred Opper

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used for regression and optimization tasks such as Bayesian optimization (BO) due to their expressiveness and principled uncertainty estimates. However, in settings with large datasets corrupted by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Marshal Arijona Sinaga , Julien Martinelli , Samuel Kaski

This work affords new insights into Bayesian CART in the context of structured wavelet shrinkage. The main thrust is to develop a formal inferential framework for Bayesian tree-based regression. We reframe Bayesian CART as a g-type prior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-25 Ismael Castillo , Veronika Rockova

The causal bandit problem seeks to identify, through sequential experimentation, an intervention that maximizes the expected reward in a causal system modeled by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Existing methods typically assume that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Yijia Zhao , Qing Zhou

We introduce a novel adaptive Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) methodology for efficient construction of surrogate models for Bayesian inverse problems with expensive forward model evaluations. An adaptive design strategy focuses on…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-05-01 Paolo Villani , Jörg Unger , Martin Weiser

A Gaussian process (GP) is a powerful and widely used regression technique. The main building block of a GP regression is the covariance kernel, which characterizes the relationship between pairs in the random field. The optimization to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-01-05 Vahid Keshavarzzadeh , Shandian Zhe , Robert M. Kirby , Akil Narayan

Gaussian graphical models are a popular tool to learn the dependence structure in the form of a graph among variables of interest. Bayesian methods have gained in popularity in the last two decades due to their ability to simultaneously…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-02 Yabo Niu , Debdeep Pati , Bani Mallick

Multiple-subject network data are fast emerging in recent years, where a separate connectivity matrix is measured over a common set of nodes for each individual subject, along with subject covariates information. In this article, we propose…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-23 Jingfei Zhang , Will Wei Sun , Lexin Li

In Gaussian graphical models, conditional independence and partial correlations are natural inferential targets for understanding direct relationships in multivariate data. No comparable framework exists for spatial processes, where…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Michele Peruzzi

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a widely used regression tool, but the cubic complexity of exact solvers limits their scalability. To address this challenge, we extend the GPRat library by incorporating a fully GPU-resident GP prediction…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Henrik Möllmann , Dirk Pflüger , Alexander Strack