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The development of driverless vehicles has spurred the need to predict human driving behavior to facilitate interaction between driverless and human-driven vehicles. Predicting human driving movements can be challenging, and poor prediction…

Some applied researchers hesitate to use nonparametric methods, worrying that they will lose power in small samples or overfit the data when simpler models are sufficient. We argue that at least some of these concerns are unfounded when…

We present a Bayesian approach to model cohort-level retention rates and revenue over time. We use Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) to model the retention component which we couple with a linear model for the revenue component.…

Multilabel Classification (MLC) deals with the simultaneous classification of multiple binary labels. The task is challenging because, not only may there be arbitrarily different and complex relationships between predictor variables and…

This paper introduces BART-RDD, a sum-of-trees regression model built around a novel regression tree prior, which incorporates the special covariate structure of regression discontinuity designs. Specifically, the tree splitting process is…

Transformers have increasingly become the de facto method to model sequential data with state-of-the-art performance. Due to its widespread use, being able to estimate and calibrate its modeling uncertainty is important to understand and…

Nonparametric regression models such as Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) can be useful in fitting flexible functions of a set of covariates to a response, while accounting for nonlinearities and interactions. However, they are…

We apply Gaussian process (GP) regression, which provides a powerful non-parametric probabilistic method of relating inputs to outputs, to survival data consisting of time-to-event and covariate measurements. In this context, the covariates…

Data mining and machine learning techniques such as classification and regression trees (CART) represent a promising alternative to conventional logistic regression for propensity score estimation. Whereas incomplete data preclude the…

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a popular Bayesian non-parametric regression algorithm. The posterior is a distribution over sums of decision trees, and predictions are made by averaging approximate samples from the posterior.…

Bayesian Causal Forests (BCF) is a causal inference machine learning model based on a highly flexible non-parametric regression and classification tool called Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). Motivated by data from the Trends in…

In modern computer experiment applications, one often encounters the situation where various models of a physical system are considered, each implemented as a simulator on a computer. An important question in such a setting is determining…

This paper introduces a generalized ps-BART model for the estimation of Average Treatment Effect (ATE) and Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) in continuous treatments, addressing limitations of the Bayesian Causal Forest (BCF)…

We perform Bayesian optimization using a Gaussian process perspective on Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). Our BART Kernel (BARK) uses tree agreement to define a posterior over piecewise-constant functions, and we explore the space…

Estimation of individualized treatment effects (ITE), also known as conditional average treatment effects (CATE), is an active area of methodology development. However, much less attention has been paid to the quantification of uncertainty…

This article proposes a novel framework that integrates Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) into a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model to forecast macro-financial variables and examine asymmetries in the transmission…

We develop a Bayesian non-parametric quantile panel regression model. Within each quantile, the response function is a convex combination of a linear model and a non-linear function, which we approximate using Bayesian Additive Regression…

Additive-interactive regression has recently been shown to offer attractive minimax error rates over traditional nonparametric multivariate regression in a wide variety of settings, including cases where the predictor count is much larger…

Individualized treatment rules (ITR) can improve health outcomes by recognizing that patients may respond differently to treatment and assigning therapy with the most desirable predicted outcome for each individual. Flexible and efficient…

Gaussian processes (GP) are Bayesian non-parametric models that are widely used for probabilistic regression. Unfortunately, it cannot scale well with large data nor perform real-time predictions due to its cubic time cost in the data size.…