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We introduce a new approach to a linear-circular regression problem that relates multiple linear predictors to a circular response. We follow a modeling approach of a wrapped normal distribution that describes angular variables and angular…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-17 Ali Esmaieeli Sikaroudi , Chiwoo Park

We model two time and space scales discrete observations by using a unique continuous diffusion process with time dependent coefficient. We define new parameters for the large scale model as functions of the small scale distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-09-09 V. Calian , G. Stefansson , L. P. Folkow , A. S. Blix

A novel copula-based multivariate panel ordinal model is developed to estimate structural relations among components of well-being. Each ordinal time-series is modelled using a copula-based Markov model to relate the marginal distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-02 Aristidis K. Nikoloulopoulos , Emmanouil Mentzakis

A regime-switching multivariate time series model which is closed under margins is built. The model imposes a restriction on all lower-dimensional sub-processes to follow a regime-switching process sharing the same latent regime sequence…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-19 Lin Zhang , Harry Joe , Natalia Nolde

The estimation of time-varying quantities is a fundamental component of decision making in fields such as healthcare and finance. However, the practical utility of such estimates is limited by how accurately they quantify predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-29 Alexandre Drouin , Étienne Marcotte , Nicolas Chapados

We propose a new approach towards approximating the density-to-pair-density map based on copula theory from statistics. We extend the copula theory to multi-dimensional marginals, and deduce that one can describe any (exact or approximate)…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-03-11 Geneviève Dusson , Claudia Klüppelberg , Gero Friesecke

Stationary and ergodic time series can be constructed using an s-vine decomposition based on sets of bivariate copula functions. The extension of such processes to infinite copula sequences is considered and shown to yield a rich class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-05 Martin Bladt , Alexander J. McNeil

A time-varying bivariate copula joint model, which models the repeatedly measured longitudinal outcome at each time point and the survival data jointly by both the random effects and time-varying bivariate copulas, is proposed in this…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-03 Zili Zhang , Christiana Charalambous , Peter Foster

Time series analysis has proven to be a powerful method to characterize several phenomena in biology, neuroscience and economics, and to understand some of their underlying dynamical features. Despite a plethora of methods have been…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-03-01 Andrea Santoro , Federico Battiston , Giovanni Petri , Enrico Amico

Biomechanical and orthopaedic studies frequently encounter complex datasets that encompass both circular and linear variables. In most cases the circular and linear variables are (i) considered in isolation with dependency between variables…

The need for regression models to predict circular values arises in many scientific fields. In this work we explore a family of expressive and interpretable distributions over circle-valued random functions related to Gaussian processes…

Copula models are flexible tools to represent complex structures of dependence for multivariate random variables. According to Sklar's theorem (Sklar, 1959), any d-dimensional absolutely continuous density can be uniquely represented as the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-05 Clara Grazian , Luciana Dalla Valle , Brunero Liseo

Time series forecasting is often fundamental to scientific and engineering problems and enables decision making. With ever increasing data set sizes, a trivial solution to scale up predictions is to assume independence between interacting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-18 Kashif Rasul , Abdul-Saboor Sheikh , Ingmar Schuster , Urs Bergmann , Roland Vollgraf

Finding parametric models that accurately describe the dependence structure of observed data is a central task in the analysis of time series. Classical frequency domain methods provide a popular set of tools for fitting and diagnostics of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-18 Stefan Birr , Tobias Kley , Stanislav Volgushev

In this paper we present an application of the use of autocopulas for modelling financial time series showing serial dependencies that are not necessarily linear. The approach presented here is semi-parametric in that it is characterized by…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-07-20 Antony Ware , Ilnaz Asadzadeh

Many records in environmental sciences exhibit asymmetric trajectories and there is a need for simple and tractable models which can reproduce such features. In this paper we explore an approach based on applying both a time change and a…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-09 Pierre Ailliot , Bernard Delyon , Valérie Monbet , Marc Prevosto

Motivated by a case study of vegetation patterns, we introduce a mixture model with concomitant variables to examine the association between the orientation of vegetation stripes and wind direction. The proposal relies on a novel…

This paper presents a general framework for modeling dependence in multivariate time series. Its fundamental approach relies on decomposing each signal in a system into various frequency components and then studying the dependence…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-01 Hernando Ombao , Marco Pinto

The majority of model-based clustering techniques is based on multivariate Normal models and their variants. In this paper copulas are used for the construction of flexible families of models for clustering applications. The use of copulas…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-16 Ioannis Kosmidis , Dimitris Karlis

This paper introduces the novel class of modulated cyclostationary processes, a class of non-stationary processes exhibiting frequency coupling, and proposes a method of their estimation from repeated trials. Cyclostationary processes also…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-25 Sofia C. Olhede , Hernando Ombao