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Critical transitions, ubiquitous in nature and technology, necessitate anticipation to avert adverse outcomes. While many studies focus on bifurcation-induced tipping, where a control parameter change leads to destabilization, alternative…
We study a model ecosystem by means of dynamical techniques from disordered systems theory. The model describes a set of species subject to competitive interactions through a background of resources, which they feed upon. Additionally…
A broad range of natural and social systems from human microbiome to financial markets can go through critical transitions, where the system suddenly collapses to another stable configuration. Critical transitions can be unexpected, with…
Noise plays a fundamental role in a wide variety of physical and biological dynamical systems. It can arise from an external forcing or due to random dynamics internal to the system. It is well established that even weak noise can result in…
Many real-world complex systems, such as epidemic spreading networks and ecosystems, can be modeled as networked dynamical systems that produce multivariate time series. Learning the intrinsic dynamics from observational data is pivotal for…
In a standard bifurcation of a dynamical system, the stationary points (or more generally attractors) change qualitatively when varying a control parameter. Here we describe a novel unusual effect, when the change of a parameter, e.g. a…
A comprehensive characterization of internal climate variability and irreducible uncertainty through initial-condition large ensembles of Earth system models across different spatiotemporal scales remains a significant challenge in climate…
This paper draws distinctions among various concepts related to tipping points, robustness, path dependence, and other properties of system dynamics. For each concept a formal definition is provided that utilizes Markov model…
Ecological networks allow us to study the structure and function of ecosystems and gain insights on species resilience/stability. The study of this ecological networks is usually a snapshop focused in a limited specific range of space and…
Abrupt transitions are a central concern in climate and ecological research, and may arise when critical thresholds known as tipping points are crossed. However, previous work has shown that finite-time overshoots of tipping points can be…
Data taken from observations of the natural world or laboratory measurements often depend on parameters which can vary in unexpected ways. In this paper we demonstrate how machine learning can be leveraged to detect changes in global…
Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…
In his seminal work in the 1970s, Robert May suggested that there is an upper limit to the number of species that can be sustained in stable equilibrium by an ecosystem. This deduction was at odds with both intuition and the observed…
Many of life's most fascinating phenomena emerge from interactions among many elements--many amino acids determine the structure of a single protein, many genes determine the fate of a cell, many neurons are involved in shaping our thoughts…
Critical transitions, or large changes in the state of a system after a small change in the system's external conditions or parameters, commonly occur in a wide variety of disciplines, from the biological and social sciences to physics.…
A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized…
Ecological systems are complex dynamical systems. Modelling efforts on ecosystems' dynamical stability have revealed that population dynamics, being highly nonlinear, can be governed by complex fluctuations. Indeed, experimental and field…
In the context of network dynamics, the complexity of systems increases possible evolutionary paths that often are not deterministic. Occasionally, some map routs form over the course of time which guide systems towards some particular…
The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…
We consider networks of dynamical units that evolve in time according to different laws, and are coupled to each other in highly irregular ways. Studying how to steer the dynamics of such systems towards a desired evolution is of great…