Related papers: Rate-induced tipping in complex high-dimensional e…
Many complex networks are known to exhibit sudden transitions between alternative steady states with contrasting properties. Such a sudden transition demonstrates a network's resilience, which is the ability of a system to persist in the…
Motivated by the study of the time evolution of random dynamical systems arising in a vast variety of domains --- ranging from physics to ecology ---, we establish conditions for the occurrence of a non-trivial asymptotic behaviour for…
Tipping elements in the climate system are large-scale subregions of the Earth that might possess threshold behavior under global warming with large potential impacts on human societies. Here, we study a subset of five tipping elements and…
This paper introduces factored conditional filters, new filtering algorithms for simultaneously tracking states and estimating parameters in high-dimensional state spaces. The conditional nature of the algorithms is used to estimate…
In clinical trials, an experimental treatment is sometimes added on to a standard of care or control therapy in multiple treatment phases (e.g., concomitant and maintenance phases) to improve patient outcomes. When the new regimen provides…
In this paper we analyze the effect of a non-trivial topology on the dynamics of the so-called Naming Game, a recently introduced model which addresses the issue of how shared conventions emerge spontaneously in a population of agents. We…
Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress…
Complex systems such as ecological communities and neuron networks are essential parts of our everyday lives. These systems are composed of units which interact through intricate networks. The ability to predict sudden changes in the…
The notion of drift refers to the phenomenon that the distribution, which is underlying the observed data, changes over time. Albeit many attempts were made to deal with drift, formal notions of drift are application-dependent and…
The concept of random dynamical system is a comparatively recent development combining ideas and methods from the well developed areas of probability theory and dynamical systems. Due to our inaccurate knowledge of the particular physical…
The existence of the {\em typical set} is key for data compression strategies and for the emergence of robust statistical observables in macroscopic physical systems. Standard approaches derive its existence from a restricted set of…
We study a Weiner process that is conditioned to pass through a finite set of points and consider the dynamics generated by iterating a sample path from this process. Using topological techniques we are able to characterize the global…
In the context of understanding the nature of the risk transformation process of the financial system we propose an iterative risk-trading game between several agents who build their trading strategies based on a general utility setting.…
This paper introduces a novel approach to quantifying ecological resilience in biological systems, particularly focusing on noisy systems responding to episodic disturbances with sudden adaptations. Incorporating concepts from…
We consider the problem of detecting abrupt changes (i.e., large jump discontinuities) in the rate function of a point process. The rate function is assumed to be fully unknown, non-stationary, and may itself be a random process that…
Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the…
Global cooperation is posited as a pivotal solution to address climate change, yet significant barriers, like free-riding, hinder its realization. This paper develops a dynamic game-theoretic model to analyze the stability of coalitions…
An application of optimal control theory results in a lower bound on the speed $|\dot{\lambda}(t)|$ that must be attained at least once by any external forcing function that induces tipping in the asymptotically autonomous scalar ODE…
A universal formula is shown to predict the dynamics of public opinion including eventual sudden and unexpected outbreaks of minority opinions within a generic parameter space of five dimensions. The formula is obtained combining and…
Detecting early warning indicators for abrupt dynamical transitions in complex systems or high-dimensional observation data is essential in many real-world applications, such as brain diseases, natural disasters, and engineering…