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A common concern when a policymaker draws causal inferences from and makes decisions based on observational data is that the measured covariates are insufficiently rich to account for all sources of confounding, i.e., the standard no…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-25 Tao Shen , Yifan Cui

In this paper, we explore optimal treatment allocation policies that target distributional welfare. Most literature on treatment choice has considered utilitarian welfare based on the conditional average treatment effect (ATE). While…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-30 Yifan Cui , Sukjin Han

Item response theory (IRT) is the study of how people make probabilistic decisions, with diverse applications in education testing, recommendation systems, among others. The Rasch model of binary response data, one of the most fundamental…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-14 Duc Nguyen , Anderson Y. Zhang

This paper studies a penalized statistical decision rule for the treatment assignment problem. Consider the setting of a utilitarian policy maker who must use sample data to allocate a binary treatment to members of a population, based on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-10 Eric Mbakop , Max Tabord-Meehan

Personalized medicine aims at identifying best treatments for a patient with given characteristics. It has been shown in the literature that these methods can lead to great improvements in medicine compared to traditional methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-26 Oleg Sysoev , Krzysztof Bartoszek , Eva-Charlotte Ekstrom , Katarina Ekholm Selling

Randomized saturation designs are a family of designs which assign a possibly different treatment proportion to each cluster of a population at random. As a result, they generalize the well-known (stratified) completely randomized designs…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-21 Chencheng Cai , Jean Pouget-Abadie , Edoardo M. Airoldi

The sequential treatment decisions made by physicians to treat chronic diseases are formalized in the statistical literature as dynamic treatment regimes. To date, methods for dynamic treatment regimes have been developed under the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-22 Janie Coulombe , Erica E. M. Moodie , Susan M. Shortreed , Christel Renoux

In this paper, we outline a principled approach to estimate an individualized treatment rule that is appropriate for data from observational studies where, in addition to treatment assignment not being independent of individual…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-05 Jeremy Roth , Noah Simon

This paper studies the problem of estimating individualized treatment rules when treatment effects are partially identified, as it is often the case with observational data. By drawing connections between the treatment assignment problem…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-01-02 Riccardo D'Adamo

This paper studies the problem of optimally allocating treatments in the presence of spillover effects, using information from a (quasi-)experiment. I introduce a method that maximizes the sample analog of average social welfare when…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-09 Davide Viviano

Designing individualized allocation of treatments so as to maximize the equilibrium welfare of interacting agents has many policy-relevant applications. Focusing on sequential decision games of interacting agents, this paper develops a…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-15 Toru Kitagawa , Guanyi Wang

Problem definition: Personalized medicine (PM) seeks the best treatment for each patient among a set of available treatment methods. Since a specific treatment does not work well on all patients, traditionally, the best treatment was…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-08-03 Jianzhong Du , Siyang Gao , Chun-Hung Chen

A treatment regime is a function that maps individual patient information to a recommended treatment, hence explicitly incorporating the heterogeneity in need for treatment across individuals. Patient responses are dichotomous and can be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-07-07 Yingfei Wang , Warren Powell

Machine learning systems embed preferences either in training losses or through post-processing of calibrated predictions. Applying information design methods from Strack and Yang (2024), this paper provides decision problem agnostic…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-01-27 Joshua S. Gans

Recurrent events, characterized by the repeated occurrence of the same event in an individual, are a common type of data in medical research. Motivated by cancer recurrences, we aim to estimate the optimal individualized treatment regime…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-18 Zi-Shu Zhan , Jin-Lun Zhang , Chen Shi , Xiao-Han Xu , Chun-Quan Ou

A treatment regime is a deterministic function that dictates personalized treatment based on patients' individual prognostic information. There is a fast-growing interest in finding optimal treatment regimes to maximize expected long-term…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-25 Runchao Jiang , Wenbin Lu , Rui Song , Marie Davidian

The aim of inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) is to infer an agent's preferences from observing their behaviour. Usually, preferences are modelled as a reward function, $R$, and behaviour is modelled as a policy, $\pi$. One of the central…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-17 Joar Skalse , Alessandro Abate

In many important applications of precision medicine, the outcome of interest is time to an event (e.g., death, relapse of disease) and the primary goal is to identify the optimal individualized decision rule (IDR) to prolong survival time.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-11 Yu Zhou , Lan Wang , Rui Song , Tuoyi Zhao

We study the population limit maximum regret (MR) of plug-in prediction when the decision problem is to choose between two treatments for the members of a population with observed covariates x. In this setting, the optimal treatment for…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-10 Jeff Dominitz , Charles F. Manski

There is a growing interest in using reinforcement learning (RL) to personalize sequences of treatments in digital health to support users in adopting healthier behaviors. Such sequential decision-making problems involve decisions about…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Susobhan Ghosh , Raphael Kim , Prasidh Chhabria , Raaz Dwivedi , Predrag Klasnja , Peng Liao , Kelly Zhang , Susan Murphy
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