Related papers: Deconstructing Alien Hunting
Each of the individual factors of the Drake Equation is considered. Each in turn is either abandoned or redefined and finally reduced to a single new factor, fd, the fraction of technological life that is detectable by any means. However,…
Are we alone? It is a compelling question that human beings have confronted for centuries. The search for extraterrestrial life is a broad range of quests for finding simple forms of life up to intelligent beings in the Universe. The…
Even though the original Kepler mission ended due to mechanical failures, the Kepler satellite continues to collect data. Using classification models, we can understand the features exoplanets possess and then use those features to…
The study of origins of life on Earth and the search for life on other planets are closely linked. Prebiotic chemical scenarios can help prioritize planets as targets for the search for life as we know it and can provide informative priors…
We consider the problem of binary classification with abstention in the relatively less studied \emph{bounded-rate} setting. We begin by obtaining a characterization of the Bayes optimal classifier for an arbitrary input-label distribution…
Hypothesis testing and model choice are quintessential questions for statistical inference and while the Bayesian paradigm seems ideally suited for answering these questions, it faces difficulties of its own ranging from prior modelling to…
Ours could realistically be the generation to discover evidence of life beyond Earth. With this privileged potential comes responsibility. The magnitude of the question, "are we alone?", and the public interest therein, opens the…
On page 10 of the 2018 National Academies Exoplanet Science Strategy document (NASEM 2018), 'Expect the unexpected' is described as a general principle of the exoplanet field. But for the next 150 pages, this principle is apparently…
We estimate the relative likelihood of success in the searches for primitive versus intelligent life on other planets. Taking into account the larger search volume for detectable artificial electromagnetic signals, we conclude that both…
Thousands of planets beyond our solar system have been discovered to date, dozens of which are rocky in composition and are orbiting within the circumstellar habitable zone of their host star. The next frontier in life detection beyond our…
Bayes factors have become a popular tool in exoplanet spectroscopy for testing atmosphere models against one another. We show that the commonly used method for converting these values into significance "sigmas" is invalid. The formula is…
Searching for life elsewhere in the universe is one of the most highly prioritized pursuits in astronomy today. However, the ability to observe evidence of Earth-like life through biosignatures is limited by the number of planets in the…
(Abridged) The discovery of extrasolar planetary systems revealed an unexpected diversity of planetary systems that has revolutionized planet formation theory. A strong program of theoretical research is essential to maximize both the…
The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) aims to telescopically constrain the frequency and abundance of biospheres in the solar neighborhood. Origin-of-life theories vary in their predictions for the environmental requirements and the…
Recent discoveries imply that Early Mars was habitable for life-as-we-know-it; that Enceladus might be habitable; and that many stars have Earth-sized exoplanets whose insolation favors surface liquid water. These exciting discoveries make…
The search for extrasolar Earth-like planets is underway. Over 100 extrasolar giant planets are known to orbit nearby sun-like stars, including several in multiple-planet systems. These planetary systems are stepping stones for the search…
We examine the funding disparity in astronomical research priorities: the Habitable Worlds Observatory is planned to receive over $10 billion over the next two decades whereas extraterrestrial intelligence research receives nearly zero…
The discovery of extra-solar planets is one of the greatest achievements of modern astronomy. The detection of planets with a wide range of masses demonstrates that extra-solar planets of low mass exist. In this paper we describe a mission,…
We apply recent ideas about complexity and randomness to the philosophy of laws and chances. We develop two ways to use algorithmic randomness to characterize probabilistic laws of nature. The first, a generative chance* law, employs a…
The Bayes factor surface is a new way to present results from experimental searches for new physics. Searches are regularly expressed in terms of phenomenological parameters - such as the mass and cross-section of a weakly interacting…