English

Are We There Yet? Challenges in Quantifying the Frequency of Earth Analogs in the Habitable Zone

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics 2025-11-11 v1 Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics Solar and Stellar Astrophysics

Abstract

Searching for life elsewhere in the universe is one of the most highly prioritized pursuits in astronomy today. However, the ability to observe evidence of Earth-like life through biosignatures is limited by the number of planets in the solar neighborhood with conditions similar to Earth. The occurrence rate of Earth-like planets in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars, η\eta_{\oplus}, is therefore crucial for addressing the apparent lack of consensus on its value in the literature. Here we present a review of the current understanding of η\eta_{\oplus}. We first provide definitions for parameters that contribute to η\eta_{\oplus}. Then, we discuss the previous and current estimated parameter values and the context of the limitations on the analyses that produced these estimates. We compile an extensive list of the factors that go into any calculation of η\eta_{\oplus}, and how detection techniques and surveys differ in their sensitivity and ability to accurately constrain η\eta_{\oplus}. Understanding and refining the value of η\eta_{\oplus} is crucial for upcoming missions and telescopes, such as the planned Habitable Worlds Observatory and the Large Interferometer for Exoplanets, which aim to search for biosignatures on exoplanets in the solar neighborhood.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2511.05660,
  title  = {Are We There Yet? Challenges in Quantifying the Frequency of Earth Analogs in the Habitable Zone},
  author = {Rachel B. Fernandes and Samson Johnson and Galen J. Bergsten and Sakhee Bhure and Kiersten M. Boley and Alan P. Boss and Steve Bryson and William DeRocco and Jamie Dietrich and Alison Duck and Steven Giacalone and Arvind F. Gupta and Matthias Y. He and Michelle Kunimoto and Kristo Ment and Sheila Sagear and Michele L. Silverstein and Kendall Sullivan and Eliot Halley Vrijmoet and Kevin Wagner and Robert F. Wilson and Lucas Brefka and Ruslan Belikov and Aritra Chakrabarty and Jessie L. Christiansen and David R. Ciardi and Anne Dattilo and Evan Fitzmaurice and Eric B. Ford and Andrew Hotnisky and Sinclaire Jones and Aman Kar and Ravi Kopparapu and Nataliea Lowson and Eric E. Mamajek and Bertrand Mennesson and Michael R. Meyer and Sarah Millholland and Gijs D. Mulders and Susan E. Mullally and Arjun Murlidhar and Ilaria Pascucci and Darin Ragozzine and Paul Robertson and Karl Stapelfeldt and Jason Wright},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2511.05660},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

34 pages, 12 figures, under review at PASP