Related papers: Accurate estimates of dynamical statistics using m…
We study the problem of finite-horizon probabilistic invariance for discrete-time Markov processes over general (uncountable) state spaces. We compute discrete-time, finite-state Markov chains as formal abstractions of general Markov…
Markov Population Models are a widespread formalism used to model the dynamics of complex systems, with applications in Systems Biology and many other fields. The associated Markov stochastic process in continuous time is often analyzed by…
We study the performance of a stochastic algorithm based on the power method that adaptively learns the large deviation functions characterizing the fluctuations of additive functionals of Markov processes, used in physics to model…
This paper is concerned with the development of rigorous approximations to various expectations associated with Markov chains and processes having non-stationary transition probabilities. Such non-stationary models arise naturally in…
A framework for performing dynamic mesh adaptation with the discontinuous Galerkin method (DGM) is presented. Adaptations include modifications of the local mesh step size (h-adaptation) and the local degree of the approximating polynomials…
Nature, as far as we know, evolves continuously through space and time. Yet the ubiquitous hidden Markov model (HMM)--originally developed for discrete time and space analysis in natural language processing--remains a central tool in…
Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…
We propose a deep generative Markov State Model (DeepGenMSM) learning framework for inference of metastable dynamical systems and prediction of trajectories. After unsupervised training on time series data, the model contains (i) a…
Based on the theory of stochastic chemical kinetics, the inherent randomness and stochasticity of biochemical reaction networks can be accurately described by discrete-state continuous-time Markov chains. The analysis of such processes is,…
In this paper we model basketball plays as episodes from team-specific non-stationary Markov decision processes (MDPs) with shot clock dependent transition probabilities. Bayesian hierarchical models are employed in the modeling and…
This paper proposes an online learning method of Gaussian process state-space model (GP-SSM). GP-SSM is a probabilistic representation learning scheme that represents unknown state transition and/or measurement models as Gaussian processes…
The phenomena that emerge from the interaction of the stochastic opening and closing of ion channels (channel noise) with the non-linear neural dynamics are essential to our understanding of the operation of the nervous system. The effects…
Piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) are a class of stochastic processes with applications in several fields of applied mathematics spanning from mathematical modeling of physical phenomena to computational methods. A PDMP is…
Stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) are increasingly used to account for the inherent stochasticity exhibited by interacting populations of species in areas such as epidemiology, population ecology and systems biology. Species numbers are…
The literature on statistical learning for time series often assumes asymptotic independence or "mixing" of the data-generating process. These mixing assumptions are never tested, nor are there methods for estimating mixing coefficients…
Non-equilibrium Markov State Modeling (MSM) has recently been proposed [Phys. Rev. E 94, 053001 (2016)] as a possible route to construct a physical theory of sliding friction from a long steady state atomistic simulation: the approach…
The challenging problem of conducting fully Bayesian inference for the reaction rate constants governing stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) is considered. Given the challenges underlying this problem, the Markov jump process representation is…
Modeling count-valued time series has been receiving increasing attention since count time series naturally arise in physical and social domains. Poisson gamma dynamical systems (PGDSs) are newly-developed methods, which can well capture…
Accurate and rapid prediction of flow-fields is crucial for aerodynamic design. This work proposes a discontinuous Galerkin method (DGM) whose performance enhances with increasing data, for rapid simulation of transonic flow around airfoils…
This paper introduces Discrete Markov Probabilistic Models (DMPMs), a novel discrete diffusion algorithm for discrete data generation. The algorithm operates in discrete bit space, where the noising process is a continuous-time Markov chain…